4 ms·

what do you think about iceland?

by yters 7y ago

Retric 7y ago
Iceland’s peak was significantly more recent than China or South Korea which continued to have regular deaths over a month after their peak. So, my expectation is their deaths will likely double in the next three weeks. Which would be consist with ~1/2 their ICU cases dying. That said it’s a small sample size so significant variability is possible. Just compare new cases vs new deaths here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... vs new cases here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Iceland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... On the positive side, they seem to have contained the virus extremely successfully which was likely aided by a low population density, early reaction, and good testing.
- yters 7y ago
  I wish the media would focus more on the outliers of the doomsday narrative, as well as the long term consequences of the lockdown solutions being pushed. covid-19 is bad, but seems nowhere near comparable to what much of the developing world faces on a daily basis (4000 kids die a day from malaria?!?)
  - Retric 7y ago
    I have almost exclusively used Wikipedia for keeping track of the outbreak. Media has become really bad at communicating complex issues that are rapidly changing over time especially as different groups are trying to shape messages to the public. Face masks for the general public being the most obvious example.
- phillipseamore 7y ago
  Just a point on the comment "~1/2 their ICU cases dying". The University Hospital handles most of the cases (and all except two deaths). According to their statistics* a total of 25 have been in ICU ("Á gjörgæslu frá upphafi"), total of 13 on ventilators from the beginning ("Í öndunarvél frá upphafi"), with as-of yesterday 3 still on ventilators ("Í öndunarvél") and 6 deaths ("Andlát samtals vegna Covid-19"). So that's less than a quarter of ICU cases dying and half of those on vents. * https://www.landspitali.is/default.aspx?pageid=b629a8e0-b262-49e0-b842-0f776cb4241e https://www.landspitali.is/default.aspx?pageid=b629a8e0-b262...
  - Retric 7y ago
    Interesting, putting that may people in ICU that don’t need vents likely relates to a less stressed medical system. But the numbers are low enough it could just be statistical noise.

what do you think about iceland?

by yters 7y ago

what do you think about iceland?

Iceland’s peak was significantly more recent than China or South Korea which continued to have regular deaths over a month after their peak. So, my expectation is their deaths will likely double in the next three weeks. Which would be consist with ~1/2 their ICU cases dying. That said it’s a small sample size so significant variability is possible. Just compare new cases vs new deaths here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... vs new cases here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Iceland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... On the positive side, they seem to have contained the virus extremely successfully which was likely aided by a low population density, early reaction, and good testing.

yters 7y ago
I wish the media would focus more on the outliers of the doomsday narrative, as well as the long term consequences of the lockdown solutions being pushed. covid-19 is bad, but seems nowhere near comparable to what much of the developing world faces on a daily basis (4000 kids die a day from malaria?!?)
- Retric 7y ago
  I have almost exclusively used Wikipedia for keeping track of the outbreak. Media has become really bad at communicating complex issues that are rapidly changing over time especially as different groups are trying to shape messages to the public. Face masks for the general public being the most obvious example.
phillipseamore 7y ago
Just a point on the comment "~1/2 their ICU cases dying". The University Hospital handles most of the cases (and all except two deaths). According to their statistics* a total of 25 have been in ICU ("Á gjörgæslu frá upphafi"), total of 13 on ventilators from the beginning ("Í öndunarvél frá upphafi"), with as-of yesterday 3 still on ventilators ("Í öndunarvél") and 6 deaths ("Andlát samtals vegna Covid-19"). So that's less than a quarter of ICU cases dying and half of those on vents. * https://www.landspitali.is/default.aspx?pageid=b629a8e0-b262-49e0-b842-0f776cb4241e https://www.landspitali.is/default.aspx?pageid=b629a8e0-b262...
- Retric 7y ago
  Interesting, putting that may people in ICU that don’t need vents likely relates to a less stressed medical system. But the numbers are low enough it could just be statistical noise.