5 ms·

> COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe,

> COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe, but that was due to the breakdown of the overwhelmed health services). That is mixing up IFR and CFR. We don't have any good way of knowing IFR yet, and it may be quite a while before we can get a good estimate. The denominator in CFR is confirmed cases, so Italy's inflated CFR could be (and probably is) entirely related to the lack of sufficient testing.

rurban 7y ago
Italy has a very high IFR of 1%, the same rate as their every year flu epidemic. Or better very two years. The flu comes every two years. Italy has traditionally the highest flu death rates in the world. This year, with COVID-19, it is still lower than in a bad flu year. When you read 15% this might be the CFR, the case fatality rate. But only about a tenth is getting tested. So it means nothing. You can only look the death numbers, and after it settled down at the excess death rate. From there you get the real IFR. So far we are at an IFR of 0.3 - 0.6. A little bit higher than the flu, but in absolute numbes lower than a bad flu year.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  IIRC, Italy had a health care professional study that put their IFR at something around .35% or so. Similar for Germany, and the CDC just did a study of HCP's here and came up with 0.26% IFR (but the sample was 75% women).
imustbeevil 7y ago
The CFR is 21% [0]. We're already assuming the IFR is 10x lower. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- shadowprofile77 7y ago
  Please check your calculations more carefully before posting a number. the 21% mortality rate represents a percentage of all closed cases in the worldmeters data, not the sum total of all cases both active and closed either through fatality or recovery. The CFR from worldmeters based on total cases counted so far and total deaths counted so far sits at about 6% (and bear in mind that the total count of cases on the site is far, far off from the probable real number of cases.
  - imustbeevil 7y ago
    21% of people who have been confirmed to have the virus and don't anymore are dead. If the semantic argument hinges on the use of the CFR term, we don't need that term (though everything I've seen indicates CFR measures resolved cases, not total). People are using your small number to justify their belief that the virus is no worse than the flu. That does not reflect reality, and that belief is harmful.
    - rootusrootus 7y ago
      I don't see anyone here arguing that. An IFR of 0.35, let's say, would be great news at the same time as it would be significantly worse than the flu. Using bad numbers to come up with a 21% CFR is not responsible, and is arguably fearmongering.
      - imustbeevil 7y ago
        Bad numbers? Those are the numbers. How are you getting an IFR of 0.35? Where is the source for that? Does that source represent a projection or data coming from the results of tests being conducted? My source for the CFR represents the totality of real information the world has presented us to date. "A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The preliminary CFR, for example, during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

rurban 7y ago

Italy has a very high IFR of 1%, the same rate as their every year flu epidemic. Or better very two years. The flu comes every two years. Italy has traditionally the highest flu death rates in the world. This year, with COVID-19, it is still lower than in a bad flu year. When you read 15% this might be the CFR, the case fatality rate. But only about a tenth is getting tested. So it means nothing. You can only look the death numbers, and after it settled down at the excess death rate. From there you get the real IFR. So far we are at an IFR of 0.3 - 0.6. A little bit higher than the flu, but in absolute numbes lower than a bad flu year.

rootusrootus 7y ago
IIRC, Italy had a health care professional study that put their IFR at something around .35% or so. Similar for Germany, and the CDC just did a study of HCP's here and came up with 0.26% IFR (but the sample was 75% women).

imustbeevil 7y ago

The CFR is 21% [0]. We're already assuming the IFR is 10x lower. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

shadowprofile77 7y ago
Please check your calculations more carefully before posting a number. the 21% mortality rate represents a percentage of all closed cases in the worldmeters data, not the sum total of all cases both active and closed either through fatality or recovery. The CFR from worldmeters based on total cases counted so far and total deaths counted so far sits at about 6% (and bear in mind that the total count of cases on the site is far, far off from the probable real number of cases.
- imustbeevil 7y ago
  21% of people who have been confirmed to have the virus and don't anymore are dead. If the semantic argument hinges on the use of the CFR term, we don't need that term (though everything I've seen indicates CFR measures resolved cases, not total). People are using your small number to justify their belief that the virus is no worse than the flu. That does not reflect reality, and that belief is harmful.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    I don't see anyone here arguing that. An IFR of 0.35, let's say, would be great news at the same time as it would be significantly worse than the flu. Using bad numbers to come up with a 21% CFR is not responsible, and is arguably fearmongering.
    - imustbeevil 7y ago
      Bad numbers? Those are the numbers. How are you getting an IFR of 0.35? Where is the source for that? Does that source represent a projection or data coming from the results of tests being conducted? My source for the CFR represents the totality of real information the world has presented us to date. "A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The preliminary CFR, for example, during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate