5 ms·

The Diamond Princess likely had a very atypical (older) population than the general population though. The CDC is currently estimating an R0 of 5.7, which has

by sauwan 7y ago

The Diamond Princess likely had a very atypical (older) population than the general population though. The CDC is currently estimating an R0 of 5.7, which has likely been repressed by shelter in place orders. But even if it was only 4 before any interventions, there's still a chance there there are closer to 20M cases in the US rather than the 660,000 now. My point is just that there's still a lot we don't know, and small changes in our understanding could implicate massive changes in the reality on the ground.

ksaun 7y ago
Here is a reference for the R0 = 5.7 estimate: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
usaar333 7y ago
5.7 in Wuhan. That could be true for NYC as well, but is far less likely to be true in the rest of the lower density country. That said I agree with you that infections are likely in the 10M range.
wutbrodo 7y ago
> The Diamond Princess likely had a very atypical (older) population than the general population though. This would dovetail with the fact that places like sub-Saharan Africa and India haven't been hit very hard yet; they also happen to be _very_ young compared to Western countries.
- dguaraglia 7y ago
  I don't know if people are aware of this, but there's an increasing suspicion that countries still using the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might be seeing [1]way lower infection rates. If that's the case, it'd explain why developed countries are bearing the brunt of the pandemic. A very interesting example of similarly developed countries with comparable (but not equal) populations and population density, but different vaccination regimes are Portugal and Spain. Looking at their [2]respective [3]charts, the differences are stark. A similar difference can be seen between Ecuador and Argentina, even though the Greater Buenos Aires area is very population dense. If this pans out, following the trends and [4] this map would validate that hypothesis. [1]https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/coronavirus-death-rates-lower-in-countries-using-tb-vaccine/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/coronavirus-death-rates-lower-... [2]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/ [3]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ [4]http://www.bcgatlas.org/ http://www.bcgatlas.org/
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    "there's an increasing suspicion that countries still using the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might be seeing [1]way lower infection rates" Obvious to me, perhaps dumb, question - if countries that were slower to change vaccination regimes have some advantage, then wouldn't we see older people in the countries that did change also at an advantage? Yet all reporting seems to be that older people are harder hit.
    - coliveira 7y ago
      BCG vaccine requires a booster every few decades, so it becomes less effective over the years. Apart from health issues related to age, this would explain why old people are at higher risk.
  - paganel 7y ago
    Thanks for the 4th link, I couldn't really understand the really sad images and videos coming out of Guayaquil (Ecuador) when comparing them to the rest of South America. Apart from Buenos Aires there are also big metropolises like Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro where you couldn't see the same things that were happening in Guayaquil. That vaccination map for South America partly explained the difference for me, at least by correlation.
    - dguaraglia 7y ago
      Yeah, what's happening in Ecuador is incredibly sad. My whole family is in Argentina and I was worried sick for them for a while... who knows, this BCG theory gives me some hope things will be better for them than they are here. Fingers crossed.
  - amscanne 7y ago
    The map in [4] suggests that every adult in France would have received the BCG vaccine, as they only stopped in 2017 (and receive it as an infant). There are so many confounding variables here, I don't think anyone should be deriving any evidence by looking at the case charts like that.

by sauwan 7y ago

ksaun 7y ago

Here is a reference for the R0 = 5.7 estimate: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

usaar333 7y ago

5.7 in Wuhan. That could be true for NYC as well, but is far less likely to be true in the rest of the lower density country. That said I agree with you that infections are likely in the 10M range.

wutbrodo 7y ago

> The Diamond Princess likely had a very atypical (older) population than the general population though. This would dovetail with the fact that places like sub-Saharan Africa and India haven't been hit very hard yet; they also happen to be _very_ young compared to Western countries.

dguaraglia 7y ago
I don't know if people are aware of this, but there's an increasing suspicion that countries still using the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might be seeing [1]way lower infection rates. If that's the case, it'd explain why developed countries are bearing the brunt of the pandemic. A very interesting example of similarly developed countries with comparable (but not equal) populations and population density, but different vaccination regimes are Portugal and Spain. Looking at their [2]respective [3]charts, the differences are stark. A similar difference can be seen between Ecuador and Argentina, even though the Greater Buenos Aires area is very population dense. If this pans out, following the trends and [4] this map would validate that hypothesis. [1]https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/coronavirus-death-rates-lower-in-countries-using-tb-vaccine/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/coronavirus-death-rates-lower-... [2]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/ [3]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ [4]http://www.bcgatlas.org/ http://www.bcgatlas.org/
- perl4ever 7y ago
  "there's an increasing suspicion that countries still using the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might be seeing [1]way lower infection rates" Obvious to me, perhaps dumb, question - if countries that were slower to change vaccination regimes have some advantage, then wouldn't we see older people in the countries that did change also at an advantage? Yet all reporting seems to be that older people are harder hit.
  - coliveira 7y ago
    BCG vaccine requires a booster every few decades, so it becomes less effective over the years. Apart from health issues related to age, this would explain why old people are at higher risk.
- paganel 7y ago
  Thanks for the 4th link, I couldn't really understand the really sad images and videos coming out of Guayaquil (Ecuador) when comparing them to the rest of South America. Apart from Buenos Aires there are also big metropolises like Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro where you couldn't see the same things that were happening in Guayaquil. That vaccination map for South America partly explained the difference for me, at least by correlation.
  - dguaraglia 7y ago
    Yeah, what's happening in Ecuador is incredibly sad. My whole family is in Argentina and I was worried sick for them for a while... who knows, this BCG theory gives me some hope things will be better for them than they are here. Fingers crossed.
- amscanne 7y ago
  The map in [4] suggests that every adult in France would have received the BCG vaccine, as they only stopped in 2017 (and receive it as an infant). There are so many confounding variables here, I don't think anyone should be deriving any evidence by looking at the case charts like that.