3 ms·
Yes, to put this in perspective, each person has 'x' transmission opportunities on every journey to/from their lockdown base. 'x' can be expressed as 'x = n + m
by Zhyl 7y ago
Yes, to put this in perspective, each person has 'x' transmission opportunities on every journey to/from their lockdown base. 'x' can be expressed as 'x = n + m' for n people they would meet along their journey plus m people that have interacted and potentially infected every surface they touch. n and m are smaller for every journey not taken. MUCH smaller if people are broadly compliant with lockdown.
Therefore, even people breaking lockdown (justifiably or unjustifiably) are at reduced risk of transmission if other people are obeying lockdown.
- dkersten 7y agoRight, but at least anecdotally, all of the first ~20 or so cases where I am were linked to people flying home from Italy.
- Zhyl 7y agoYeah, reality is a weird mix of probability (reducing trips and therefore likelihood of catching 2019-nCov off of them) and actuality (the path the virus actually takes - see Patient 31 [1]). Governments have to release guidance based on the former, but individuals might want to protect against the latter where possible. [1] https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...