5 ms·

"To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022." Wow -- seems very unlikely to happen though.

DennisP 7y ago
Intermittent seems quite possible. Every time the death rate spikes, we'll have to lock down again. Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  > Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it. I used to have a poster along these lines in my office. https://despair.com/products/mistakes https://despair.com/products/mistakes
  - jsight 7y ago
    This one might be relevant too: https://despair.com/products/consequence https://despair.com/products/consequence
- mikepurvis 7y ago
  That's happening right now with Sweden and it's sure to be a pretty interesting case study. Their health system hasn't yet been overwhelmed, but they've had a lot of cases (and a lot of deaths), especially on a per capita basis for a smaller country: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronav... Of course, some right-wing media outlets have still been touting this as a success and a model for a less economically-damaging approach— this article is from nine days ago, but it's not hard to find other similar ones: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-... It's probably much too early to say one way or another, but I guess there is some value in having multiple approaches be tried. Particularly in a world where guys like Glenn Beck have gone on record saying they'd "rather die than kill the country."
  - ummonk 7y ago
    Funny world we’ve come to when right-wingers are pointing to Sweden as an example of how they want to handle an issue.
    - raducu 7y ago
      But in Sweden vs Norway, we are talking about 4x the case numbers adjusted for population, and a few hundred dead. The data might turn much worse, but right now I don't think it's bad for Sweden.
- orbifold 7y ago
  Yeah no this is not happening, the young people will revolt before that. You can suspend civil liberties for a few months, that's fine, but not intermittently over several years. No way that governments in western countries will get away with that. I expect this to be an event that will remove most baby-boomers from power and bring in the millennial generation, they expect us to support ~5 old people through most of our productive life and now they created or are about to create debt that we will have to pay off for the rest of our lives. A lot of it is to prop up pension schemes and assets which are primarily owned by old people and projected to have collapsed by the time a 30 year old will retire.
  - watwut 7y ago
    It seems like around me young people take the virus more seriously then old people.
  - Der_Einzige 7y ago
    Lmfao you are far too optimistic about the revolutionary potential of westernized young people. They will not revolt. They won't take power. They don't even vote today.
    - orbifold 7y ago
      I think you underestimate how things can go from apathetic to extremely violent in a short period of time. There have been lots of violent (and non-violent) mass protests in several countries of Europe, for far smaller reasons, during last few years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots, France has the yellow west movement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-W2_X5yS8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-W2_X5yS8 (this is happening despite the shutdown), Spain violently shut down Catalan independence last year, Italy is governed by a protest party, Germany had the Pegida and Friday's for Future Protests).
    - raducu 7y ago
      I take the "Ok boomer" to be the canary in the coal mine, or atleast I hope so, because without the young people revolting this planet is royaly screwed.
- raducu 7y ago
  I'm starting to doubt this. What about Sweden vs Norway -- sure, the data is 4X worse for Sweden, but we are only talking thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths. Maybe this can't scale to bigger countries though.
- malandrew 7y ago
  > Every time the death rate spikes, we'll have to lock down again. this will likely cause more business failures than a prolonged shut down. Starting up and shutting down a business is not free. There are legal costs and you need to source materials for operations. In the case of restaurants in particular, there will be loss due to spoilage
llort2 7y ago
Sounds like some liberal-fascism fuckery right there.

DennisP 7y ago

Intermittent seems quite possible. Every time the death rate spikes, we'll have to lock down again. Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it.

ceejayoz 7y ago
> Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it. I used to have a poster along these lines in my office. https://despair.com/products/mistakes https://despair.com/products/mistakes
- jsight 7y ago
  This one might be relevant too: https://despair.com/products/consequence https://despair.com/products/consequence
mikepurvis 7y ago
That's happening right now with Sweden and it's sure to be a pretty interesting case study. Their health system hasn't yet been overwhelmed, but they've had a lot of cases (and a lot of deaths), especially on a per capita basis for a smaller country: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronav... Of course, some right-wing media outlets have still been touting this as a success and a model for a less economically-damaging approach— this article is from nine days ago, but it's not hard to find other similar ones: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-... It's probably much too early to say one way or another, but I guess there is some value in having multiple approaches be tried. Particularly in a world where guys like Glenn Beck have gone on record saying they'd "rather die than kill the country."
- ummonk 7y ago
  Funny world we’ve come to when right-wingers are pointing to Sweden as an example of how they want to handle an issue.
  - raducu 7y ago
    But in Sweden vs Norway, we are talking about 4x the case numbers adjusted for population, and a few hundred dead. The data might turn much worse, but right now I don't think it's bad for Sweden.
orbifold 7y ago
Yeah no this is not happening, the young people will revolt before that. You can suspend civil liberties for a few months, that's fine, but not intermittently over several years. No way that governments in western countries will get away with that. I expect this to be an event that will remove most baby-boomers from power and bring in the millennial generation, they expect us to support ~5 old people through most of our productive life and now they created or are about to create debt that we will have to pay off for the rest of our lives. A lot of it is to prop up pension schemes and assets which are primarily owned by old people and projected to have collapsed by the time a 30 year old will retire.
- watwut 7y ago
  It seems like around me young people take the virus more seriously then old people.
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  Lmfao you are far too optimistic about the revolutionary potential of westernized young people. They will not revolt. They won't take power. They don't even vote today.
  - orbifold 7y ago
    I think you underestimate how things can go from apathetic to extremely violent in a short period of time. There have been lots of violent (and non-violent) mass protests in several countries of Europe, for far smaller reasons, during last few years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots, France has the yellow west movement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-W2_X5yS8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-W2_X5yS8 (this is happening despite the shutdown), Spain violently shut down Catalan independence last year, Italy is governed by a protest party, Germany had the Pegida and Friday's for Future Protests).
  - raducu 7y ago
    I take the "Ok boomer" to be the canary in the coal mine, or atleast I hope so, because without the young people revolting this planet is royaly screwed.
raducu 7y ago
I'm starting to doubt this. What about Sweden vs Norway -- sure, the data is 4X worse for Sweden, but we are only talking thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths. Maybe this can't scale to bigger countries though.
malandrew 7y ago
> Every time the death rate spikes, we'll have to lock down again. this will likely cause more business failures than a prolonged shut down. Starting up and shutting down a business is not free. There are legal costs and you need to source materials for operations. In the case of restaurants in particular, there will be loss due to spoilage

llort2 7y ago

Sounds like some liberal-fascism fuckery right there.