The question will be what will happen in 4-5 months. If California manages a total lockdown and by July-August is back to being normally operative then the lock

The question will be what will happen in 4-5 months. If California manages a total lockdown and by July-August is back to being normally operative then the lockdown was a good choice. On the other extreme case there might be so few cases that there will be zero herd immunity in September and a second even worse lockdown might be needed again.