3 ms·
Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days
- Pamar 7y agoI am not competent in this area, hope someone here on HN can discuss this and provide some feedback on this claim.
- verdverm 7y agoThere isn't much in the way of references to check in that article. To say how close the 40 days is to correct is difficult at this point. But I do think there is a good average number out there with some amount of margin from location, demographics, and policies. In the end, there has to be a number, if the virus does not reinfect with significance. Eventually the vast majority the population will gain immunity to the virus. How fast that happens has some multiplier for spread, and then there is like also some time delayed aspect, which in the end should give a timeline for initial exponential, peak, and then falloff to zero. Lots of people are making graphs. I don't think this person's statements are all that controversial, other than that people lose it when you mention not shutting down and letting people die. That's a whole nother can of worms. //