A few days is a very long time when you're talking about an exponential curve. Shutting down a few days earlier relative to the start of the outbreak can easil

A few days is a very long time when you're talking about an exponential curve. Shutting down a few days earlier relative to the start of the outbreak can easily halve the total number of deaths. And CA shut down 4 days before NY on an absolute basis and even earlier than that on a basis relative to the progression of the spread of the outbreak. Acting early enough trumps everything else.