3 ms·

What's your source for 2%? A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1] I have seen a number of studies

What's your source for 2%? A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1] I have seen a number of studies putting the case fatality rate at 2-3%, but this number cannot be generalized to the entire population because current testing is skewed toward the most serious cases. [2] Long-term mortality in the total population may look something like 0.66% * 0.7 assuming there are no advances in treatment (possible but unlikely, given the unprecedented efforts that are underway, and how naive we were on day one). In general more recent studies estimating IFR should be more accurate, early ones came with a lot of caveats. If there is a better estimate of IFR than 0.66%, I would like to read it. [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828691

khuey 6y ago
The CFR in Italy is nearly 13%. Even if you make incredibly generous assumptions that there are no unreported deaths and they're only catching 10% of cases that still leaves the infection fatality rate at twice the number you propose
- apatters 6y ago
  With an older population, a problematic medical system, and being caught totally unprepared, isn't Italy the worst case scenario? I don't think it would be representative of what's going to happen in other countries from here on out.
  - khuey 6y ago
    I don't know where this meme came from that Italy has a "problematic medical system" but that's certainly not true in Lombardy.
  - ModernMech 6y ago
    The US has a population riddled with comorbitities (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, etc.), a problematic medical system, and was caught totally unprepared. Isn't the US the worst case scenario, with the most deaths and most infections in the world?
  - Mountain_Skies 6y ago
    >Isn't the US the worst case scenario, with the most deaths and most infections in the world? Adjust your numbers for population. Per capita numbers for the US are far from the worse case scenario.
  - girvo 6y ago
    You pretty much just described the US.
- marcell 6y ago
  That's almost certainly untrue. Recent studies have show that as many as 38% of the Italian population has been infected at this point [1]. That gives a fatality rate 0.03%. Let's say the official death count is 10x undercounting, you're still left with 0.3%. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fxgk8q/early_results_from_the_italian_biolab_meleam/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fxgk8q/early...
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  Testing is severely undercounting cases here. People who just experience fever are told to self-isolate and aren't tested. Not all of these (luckily) end up hospitalized, so those are never, ever counted.
- smallgovt 6y ago
  This published scientific article shows you why the CFR in Italy is so high -- and why it doesn't apply to the general population: http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667 http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667 Takeaways: Old population, Pre-existing conditions, Skewed testing
saalweachter 6y ago
I use the 0.66% number myself when estimating things, but it's worth noting that that is that papers best-guess estimated infection fatality rate for China, based on its demographics. The paper has an overall estimate of the infection fatality rate for all ages of 0.2-1.6%.

khuey 6y ago

The CFR in Italy is nearly 13%. Even if you make incredibly generous assumptions that there are no unreported deaths and they're only catching 10% of cases that still leaves the infection fatality rate at twice the number you propose

apatters 6y ago
With an older population, a problematic medical system, and being caught totally unprepared, isn't Italy the worst case scenario? I don't think it would be representative of what's going to happen in other countries from here on out.
- khuey 6y ago
  I don't know where this meme came from that Italy has a "problematic medical system" but that's certainly not true in Lombardy.
- ModernMech 6y ago
  The US has a population riddled with comorbitities (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, etc.), a problematic medical system, and was caught totally unprepared. Isn't the US the worst case scenario, with the most deaths and most infections in the world?
- Mountain_Skies 6y ago
  >Isn't the US the worst case scenario, with the most deaths and most infections in the world? Adjust your numbers for population. Per capita numbers for the US are far from the worse case scenario.
- girvo 6y ago
  You pretty much just described the US.
marcell 6y ago
That's almost certainly untrue. Recent studies have show that as many as 38% of the Italian population has been infected at this point [1]. That gives a fatality rate 0.03%. Let's say the official death count is 10x undercounting, you're still left with 0.3%. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fxgk8q/early_results_from_the_italian_biolab_meleam/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fxgk8q/early...
lbeltrame 6y ago
Testing is severely undercounting cases here. People who just experience fever are told to self-isolate and aren't tested. Not all of these (luckily) end up hospitalized, so those are never, ever counted.
smallgovt 6y ago
This published scientific article shows you why the CFR in Italy is so high -- and why it doesn't apply to the general population: http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667 http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667 Takeaways: Old population, Pre-existing conditions, Skewed testing

saalweachter 6y ago

I use the 0.66% number myself when estimating things, but it's worth noting that that is that papers best-guess estimated infection fatality rate for China, based on its demographics. The paper has an overall estimate of the infection fatality rate for all ages of 0.2-1.6%.