4 ms·
New York was only a few days behind California. Density matters so much that it's going to take a long time to arrive at good answers for how much lockdowns af
by randallsquared 7y ago
New York was only a few days behind California. Density matters so much that it's going to take a long time to arrive at good answers for how much lockdowns affected this, and there will be very strong pressure for a long time not to arrive at any conclusion other than "it worked", regardless of whether that's the truth. Which, obviously, it might well be!
- CydeWeys 7y agoA few days is a very long time when you're talking about an exponential curve. Shutting down a few days earlier relative to the start of the outbreak can easily halve the total number of deaths. And CA shut down 4 days before NY on an absolute basis and even earlier than that on a basis relative to the progression of the spread of the outbreak. Acting early enough trumps everything else.