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Presumably the cases are so low precisely because we have enacted these measures. If we had not done that we'd probably look more like New York right now. The
by pacificmint 6y ago
Presumably the cases are so low precisely because we have enacted these measures.
If we had not done that we'd probably look more like New York right now.
The more effective your measures are, the more it is going to look like they were unnecessary.
Or to reuse your metaphor: A campfire can turn into a wildfire really quickly. If we hadn't thrown the tsunami onto it when it was the size of a campfire, we might have gotten a wildfire burning down the whole state.
- randallsquared 6y agoNew York was only a few days behind California. Density matters so much that it's going to take a long time to arrive at good answers for how much lockdowns affected this, and there will be very strong pressure for a long time not to arrive at any conclusion other than "it worked", regardless of whether that's the truth. Which, obviously, it might well be!
- CydeWeys 6y agoA few days is a very long time when you're talking about an exponential curve. Shutting down a few days earlier relative to the start of the outbreak can easily halve the total number of deaths. And CA shut down 4 days before NY on an absolute basis and even earlier than that on a basis relative to the progression of the spread of the outbreak. Acting early enough trumps everything else.