3 ms·

Any comparison using the officially reported death toll in Wuhan at face value is of no value whatsoever.

by djrogers 7y ago

dsl 7y ago
Have you been on site in Wuhan? Collected any data? Where can we get a copy?
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  No, we don't have solid data on Wuhan. Neither does anyone else outside of China (or so we strongly suspect). The question isn't whether someone has better data than you. The point is that you don't have believable data for Wuhan.
munk-a 7y ago
It has value - it should just be treated very skeptically. And, honestly, the US numbers are highly inaccurate as well due to a simply lack of an ability to test (instead of a lack of will to publish the real numbers).
- mlindner 7y ago
  The casualty numbers are quite accurate. The US records every cause of death.
  - raphlinus 7y ago
    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595 https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595 @MarkLevineNYC BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result). It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%. Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.
  - gizmo686 7y ago
    The US cannot record data it doesn't have. Covid is only the cause of death if the deceased had Covid; and we cannot know that unless we can test them. In aggragate, we can sidestep this issue by looking at excess death, but that is non-trivial (particuarly because the behavioural changes mean that we would expect other causes of death to differ in unknown ways). At the end of this, I would expect to get fairly accurate estimates for how many died to Covid, but while we are in the middle of it, the numbers are very murky.
    - csdreamer7 7y ago
      Indeed, if you look at CDC's cause of death numbers you will see they only list till 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/ https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/ At least that is what I could find. I was curious to see if I could find some month to month chart on all deaths for March, February, and January. I could not find one.
  - macintux 7y ago
    That is categorically false. They’re not testing every dead person for the virus, and most people die from one of its side effects, like pneumonia.

Any comparison using the officially reported death toll in Wuhan at face value is of no value whatsoever.

dsl 7y ago

Have you been on site in Wuhan? Collected any data? Where can we get a copy?

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
No, we don't have solid data on Wuhan. Neither does anyone else outside of China (or so we strongly suspect). The question isn't whether someone has better data than you. The point is that you don't have believable data for Wuhan.

munk-a 7y ago

It has value - it should just be treated very skeptically. And, honestly, the US numbers are highly inaccurate as well due to a simply lack of an ability to test (instead of a lack of will to publish the real numbers).

mlindner 7y ago
The casualty numbers are quite accurate. The US records every cause of death.
- raphlinus 7y ago
  https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595 https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595 @MarkLevineNYC BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result). It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%. Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.
- gizmo686 7y ago
  The US cannot record data it doesn't have. Covid is only the cause of death if the deceased had Covid; and we cannot know that unless we can test them. In aggragate, we can sidestep this issue by looking at excess death, but that is non-trivial (particuarly because the behavioural changes mean that we would expect other causes of death to differ in unknown ways). At the end of this, I would expect to get fairly accurate estimates for how many died to Covid, but while we are in the middle of it, the numbers are very murky.
  - csdreamer7 7y ago
    Indeed, if you look at CDC's cause of death numbers you will see they only list till 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/ https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/ At least that is what I could find. I was curious to see if I could find some month to month chart on all deaths for March, February, and January. I could not find one.
- macintux 7y ago
  That is categorically false. They’re not testing every dead person for the virus, and most people die from one of its side effects, like pneumonia.