4 ms·
That makes you think it should be a bell curve? Are you arguing it will be a bell curve with such a peak, even if restrictions are weakened or removed? That is
by okintheory 7y ago
That makes you think it should be a bell curve? Are you arguing it will be a bell curve with such a peak, even if restrictions are weakened or removed? That is unlikely.
- mikekij 7y agoI am not. I am arguing that the current trajectory data we're observing [2] does not align with the projections of our current trajectory provided by the government of California (the light blue line labeled 'With Intervention' [1]) [1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California.. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California.... [2] https://covid-19.direct/state/CA https://covid-19.direct/state/CA
- okintheory 7y agoBut you wrote "meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a bell curve with a maximum value of ~10,000 on ~4/20."? You didn't mean that?
- mikekij 7y agoI meant that "the graph of active hospitalizations should be a bell curve with a maximum value of ~10,000 on ~4/20" with the current mitigations in place. That is not what the government report is projecting. They're projecting unbounded, exponential growth with current mitigations in place, even though that is not in line with the data we've seen over the past two weeks.