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Why is it that hospitalizations are expected to keep increasing indefinitely even with the interventions in place? I assume the graph represents point-in-time h

Why is it that hospitalizations are expected to keep increasing indefinitely even with the interventions in place? I assume the graph represents point-in-time hospitalizations and not accumulated # of interventions? If so it would be nice to see some of their assumptions, like average expected duration of hospitalization. I just don't understand why hospitalizations keep going up in this roadmap when every country that has put strict social distancing measures in effect starts to see a leveling-off and decrease in hospitalization after around the 3 week mark. In short, I wish they could put more details into what goes into these projections, and explain why they expect to see hospitalization number to keep going up even withs social distancing. Unless someone messed up and put the graph of accumulated hospitalizations since beginning of year instead of point-in-time # of hospitalizations.

mandelbrotwurst 7y ago
Where does it say that? The chart only goes through May.
- maxlamb 7y ago
  The graph keeps going up in an exponential curve, even the one with interventions, through the end of May. You can see even the rate increasing at the end of May, so that means acceleration of growth with no hint of a leveling off. If they see it leveling off at some point I don't understand why they don't then extend the date range so we can see that.
maxsilver 7y ago
> why hospitalizations keep going up in this roadmap when every country that has put strict social distancing measures in effect starts to see a leveling-off and decrease in hospitalization after around the 3 week mark Because that's not a safe assumption. Hospitalizations are still going up in areas across the US, even in areas of US that are now on week 4 or 5 of lockdown. Michigan, for example, is on week 4 and while the growth of the curve is slowing, hospitalizations still continue to rise every single day - https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2020/04/13/michigan-gov-whitmer-coronavirus-curve-starting-to-flatten-in-parts-of-state/ https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2020/04/13/mich...
- maxlamb 7y ago
  Michigan’s order started on March 23rd, so just 3 weeks and 1 day ago. I guess next week we’ll have better data on the impact.

mandelbrotwurst 7y ago

Where does it say that? The chart only goes through May.

maxlamb 7y ago
The graph keeps going up in an exponential curve, even the one with interventions, through the end of May. You can see even the rate increasing at the end of May, so that means acceleration of growth with no hint of a leveling off. If they see it leveling off at some point I don't understand why they don't then extend the date range so we can see that.

maxsilver 7y ago

> why hospitalizations keep going up in this roadmap when every country that has put strict social distancing measures in effect starts to see a leveling-off and decrease in hospitalization after around the 3 week mark Because that's not a safe assumption. Hospitalizations are still going up in areas across the US, even in areas of US that are now on week 4 or 5 of lockdown. Michigan, for example, is on week 4 and while the growth of the curve is slowing, hospitalizations still continue to rise every single day - https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2020/04/13/michigan-gov-whitmer-coronavirus-curve-starting-to-flatten-in-parts-of-state/ https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2020/04/13/mich...

maxlamb 7y ago
Michigan’s order started on March 23rd, so just 3 weeks and 1 day ago. I guess next week we’ll have better data on the impact.