9 ms·

Unless all cars are driven by machine, the driverless car won't make a huge difference in our lives. You can already experience the magic of not having to drive

Unless all cars are driven by machine, the driverless car won't make a huge difference in our lives. You can already experience the magic of not having to drive by paying someone else to do it for you. The real gains of automation occur when a machine doing the job can do it faster than a human. Computers calculate and communicate faster than people, and factories/robots build stuff faster. A machine driving a car has to obey the rules of the road and react to other human drivers. This puts a hard limit on their potential. Now once all cars are driven by machine, we will see amazing changes. No traffic lights for starters.

mdonahoe 16y ago
It would be sweet to see a time where only a majority of the cars on the road are driven by machine. I imagine them driving in packs, and leaving lots of buffer space between them and the lone human driver.
- Cossolus 16y ago
  Yes, these secondary affects are interesting to think about. Also, if people don't have to drive 95% of the time, people will forget how to drive, and will probably be unable to instantly switch into 'operator' mode when/if the car decides to transfer back into manual mode. For this reason, I don't see the technology being successful until it can drive reliably enough that it never has to switch back into manual mode. Can you imagine reading a book, watching a movie, eating (or whatever) in your car and suddenly the situation gets so hairy that the car switches back into manual? I don't think that would work out, especially if the last time you had taken the wheel was 5 years ago.
waterlesscloud 16y ago
Rush hour in major cities would be an entirely different experience with automated cars. In my observation, the vast majority of congestion is caused by drivers either overcompensating for changes in conditions (ie slowing down even more than the car in front of you slowed down) or otherwise reacting slowly. I believe highways could handle considerably more traffic if all the traffic were automated. I think it's possible to see significant gains if only some of the cars were automated, actually.
- alttab 16y ago
  I think it's possible to see significant gains if only some of the cars were automated, actually. I've thought about this as well many times.
  - KeithMajhor 16y ago
    Is it that an automated car could break a chain of overcompensation? This sounds really interesting could someone knowledgeable elaborate?
- Jach 16y ago
  Left lane for automated cars, right lane for manual prudes. In mine and a lot of others' observation the main cause of traffic is people's inability to merge. People suck at it. And that in turn creates traffic waves... http://trafficwaves.org/ http://trafficwaves.org/
- mikepurvis 16y ago
  Increased density of cars on the road has the potential for a huge economic wins, in terms of getting governments out of widening highways to increase throughput. Automated cars would be be able to (one day) receive information about down-the-road conditions and congestion which would enable the automation of William Beaty's "jam busting" techniques at a more expansive scale: http://amasci.com/amateur/traffic/trafexp.html http://amasci.com/amateur/traffic/trafexp.html (For example, slowing down gradually, rather than screeching to a stop as you pile into the back of a jam.)
boredguy8 16y ago
This view seems deeply flawed. One of the upsides of public transportation is that I can read / sleep / work / talk with people with 0 distractions. The downside is that the commute is 3-5 times longer. If I can get the shorter commute time of my car AND have the benefits of not having to pay attention, that's a huge gain even if my travel time isn't any faster. Additionally, there are plenty of use cases that don't rely on interaction. Ideally, my car can drop me off at the door to the grocery store and go park itself and then come pick me up when I text it that I'm ready to go home.
- cake 16y ago
  Imagine cars on demand. You don't own a car, you text a car to get you to work at 8:30, the car picks you up at home, drops you off (no parking space required) and goes on to the next ride. I can't wait to see driverless cars.
  - StavrosK 16y ago
    That's an ingenious concept! I will start a company like that right now, I will call them... Taxis!
    - cake 16y ago
      Yes almost like a taxi, what I meant to say is that today you don't drive to work in a taxi because they are so expensive most of the time or inconvenient because few are available. If driverless cars became maintream I'm pretty sure it would drastically decrease the price of such commutes thus changing the way we own a car today.
  - antihero 16y ago
    Almost like a taxi? I guess with driverless it's more like cloud carpooling.
    - natrius 16y ago
      It'd be cheaper than a taxi since there's no driver to pay.
ChuckMcM 16y ago
This is wrong of course. Imagine you could hire a driver, now imagine he worked for free and was always at his best driving ability. The things that self driving cars will do first, really really well, are: 1) Drive people around who currently use chauffers because they can use the driving time productively. 2) Lower the barrier to attending events, restaurants, etc in urban areas where parking is an issue. (if you car can go park itself a couple of miles away and you can phone it up when you want to go home, win) 3) Reduce the number of DUI accidents as people go out, have a good time, and their car drives them home. Self driving cars that can drive amongst human driven cars will be a huge win. Now why a search company would do with that, who knows.
- orangecat 16y ago
  Now why a search company would do with that, who knows. Google is an AI company. Search and ads just happen to be the currently most profitable application.
- nooneelse 16y ago
  > 2) Lower the barrier to attending events, restaurants, etc in urban areas where parking is an issue. (if you car can go park itself a couple of miles away and you can phone it up when you want to go home, win) It lowers the barrier on travel in another way too. Put a comfortable bed in the self driving car and anywhere within 8 hours drive is now a night's sleep away. Weekend tourism would be a lot more fun that way.
- lloeki 16y ago
  Aggregate data about trips and make statistics and whatnot.

mdonahoe 16y ago

It would be sweet to see a time where only a majority of the cars on the road are driven by machine. I imagine them driving in packs, and leaving lots of buffer space between them and the lone human driver.

Cossolus 16y ago
Yes, these secondary affects are interesting to think about. Also, if people don't have to drive 95% of the time, people will forget how to drive, and will probably be unable to instantly switch into 'operator' mode when/if the car decides to transfer back into manual mode. For this reason, I don't see the technology being successful until it can drive reliably enough that it never has to switch back into manual mode. Can you imagine reading a book, watching a movie, eating (or whatever) in your car and suddenly the situation gets so hairy that the car switches back into manual? I don't think that would work out, especially if the last time you had taken the wheel was 5 years ago.

waterlesscloud 16y ago

Rush hour in major cities would be an entirely different experience with automated cars. In my observation, the vast majority of congestion is caused by drivers either overcompensating for changes in conditions (ie slowing down even more than the car in front of you slowed down) or otherwise reacting slowly. I believe highways could handle considerably more traffic if all the traffic were automated. I think it's possible to see significant gains if only some of the cars were automated, actually.

alttab 16y ago
I think it's possible to see significant gains if only some of the cars were automated, actually. I've thought about this as well many times.
- KeithMajhor 16y ago
  Is it that an automated car could break a chain of overcompensation? This sounds really interesting could someone knowledgeable elaborate?
Jach 16y ago
Left lane for automated cars, right lane for manual prudes. In mine and a lot of others' observation the main cause of traffic is people's inability to merge. People suck at it. And that in turn creates traffic waves... http://trafficwaves.org/ http://trafficwaves.org/
mikepurvis 16y ago
Increased density of cars on the road has the potential for a huge economic wins, in terms of getting governments out of widening highways to increase throughput. Automated cars would be be able to (one day) receive information about down-the-road conditions and congestion which would enable the automation of William Beaty's "jam busting" techniques at a more expansive scale: http://amasci.com/amateur/traffic/trafexp.html http://amasci.com/amateur/traffic/trafexp.html (For example, slowing down gradually, rather than screeching to a stop as you pile into the back of a jam.)

boredguy8 16y ago

This view seems deeply flawed. One of the upsides of public transportation is that I can read / sleep / work / talk with people with 0 distractions. The downside is that the commute is 3-5 times longer. If I can get the shorter commute time of my car AND have the benefits of not having to pay attention, that's a huge gain even if my travel time isn't any faster. Additionally, there are plenty of use cases that don't rely on interaction. Ideally, my car can drop me off at the door to the grocery store and go park itself and then come pick me up when I text it that I'm ready to go home.

cake 16y ago
Imagine cars on demand. You don't own a car, you text a car to get you to work at 8:30, the car picks you up at home, drops you off (no parking space required) and goes on to the next ride. I can't wait to see driverless cars.
- StavrosK 16y ago
  That's an ingenious concept! I will start a company like that right now, I will call them... Taxis!
  - cake 16y ago
    Yes almost like a taxi, what I meant to say is that today you don't drive to work in a taxi because they are so expensive most of the time or inconvenient because few are available. If driverless cars became maintream I'm pretty sure it would drastically decrease the price of such commutes thus changing the way we own a car today.
- antihero 16y ago
  Almost like a taxi? I guess with driverless it's more like cloud carpooling.
  - natrius 16y ago
    It'd be cheaper than a taxi since there's no driver to pay.

ChuckMcM 16y ago

This is wrong of course. Imagine you could hire a driver, now imagine he worked for free and was always at his best driving ability. The things that self driving cars will do first, really really well, are: 1) Drive people around who currently use chauffers because they can use the driving time productively. 2) Lower the barrier to attending events, restaurants, etc in urban areas where parking is an issue. (if you car can go park itself a couple of miles away and you can phone it up when you want to go home, win) 3) Reduce the number of DUI accidents as people go out, have a good time, and their car drives them home. Self driving cars that can drive amongst human driven cars will be a huge win. Now why a search company would do with that, who knows.

orangecat 16y ago
Now why a search company would do with that, who knows. Google is an AI company. Search and ads just happen to be the currently most profitable application.
nooneelse 16y ago
> 2) Lower the barrier to attending events, restaurants, etc in urban areas where parking is an issue. (if you car can go park itself a couple of miles away and you can phone it up when you want to go home, win) It lowers the barrier on travel in another way too. Put a comfortable bed in the self driving car and anywhere within 8 hours drive is now a night's sleep away. Weekend tourism would be a lot more fun that way.
lloeki 16y ago
Aggregate data about trips and make statistics and whatnot.