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Is there anything in this data indicating that there is something going on more severe than the flu? I don't see anything.

ceejayoz 7y ago
"It's not worse than the flu when we lockdown the entire global economy" is not a comforting fact, even if true.
- dominiclooser 7y ago
  We don't know how it would have been without lockdown. We just see this data and it looks totally normal.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    > We don't know how it would have been without lockdown. Sure we do. It's not hard to see the curves flattening once mitigation efforts go into place, and slow-to-react countries having a harder time of it. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ It also stands to reason that a respiratory virus would be affected by a country going on lockdown, given the mechanism.
petschge 7y ago
In data that are 2 days to 5 weeks old we see that it kills as many as a bad flue year despite massive efforts to contain it.
- dominiclooser 7y ago
  As far as I know, Sweden didn't do much lockdown and is in normal range too. (At least so far). If it stays this way: If it would have been really that massive without measure, shouldn't Sweden be a huge outlier?
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    They've taken some mitigation steps - closing high schools and universities, banning large gatherings, encouraging work from home, social distancing, etc. It's also unclear if it's working: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-low-scale-lockdown-70114439 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sw... > For weeks, the numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities were proportionally similar between Sweden and Denmark, but while the economic results of the strict isolation are being felt in Denmark, Sweden’s mortality rate has reached more than 88 dead per million, compared with around 47 dead per million in Denmark. > After a sharp spike in deaths in Sweden, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven proposed an emergency law allowing the quick closure of public venues and transportation if needed. Lofven also warned citizens to prepare for possibly up to thousands of deaths.

ceejayoz 7y ago

"It's not worse than the flu when we lockdown the entire global economy" is not a comforting fact, even if true.

dominiclooser 7y ago
We don't know how it would have been without lockdown. We just see this data and it looks totally normal.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  > We don't know how it would have been without lockdown. Sure we do. It's not hard to see the curves flattening once mitigation efforts go into place, and slow-to-react countries having a harder time of it. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ It also stands to reason that a respiratory virus would be affected by a country going on lockdown, given the mechanism.

petschge 7y ago

In data that are 2 days to 5 weeks old we see that it kills as many as a bad flue year despite massive efforts to contain it.

dominiclooser 7y ago
As far as I know, Sweden didn't do much lockdown and is in normal range too. (At least so far). If it stays this way: If it would have been really that massive without measure, shouldn't Sweden be a huge outlier?
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  They've taken some mitigation steps - closing high schools and universities, banning large gatherings, encouraging work from home, social distancing, etc. It's also unclear if it's working: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-low-scale-lockdown-70114439 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sw... > For weeks, the numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities were proportionally similar between Sweden and Denmark, but while the economic results of the strict isolation are being felt in Denmark, Sweden’s mortality rate has reached more than 88 dead per million, compared with around 47 dead per million in Denmark. > After a sharp spike in deaths in Sweden, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven proposed an emergency law allowing the quick closure of public venues and transportation if needed. Lofven also warned citizens to prepare for possibly up to thousands of deaths.