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We didn’t know that it’s causing excess mortality, at least not from any data I’ve seen. It’s all been COVID related deaths which is pretty meaningless in its o

We didn’t know that it’s causing excess mortality, at least not from any data I’ve seen. It’s all been COVID related deaths which is pretty meaningless in its own. This is the important data that shows how bad it really is - albeit not normalised for the reduction in other deaths such as car crashes etc.

SiempreViernes 7y ago
So have you read the stories about how hospitals rent cooling containers and some cities use ice rinks to get additional storage capacity for dead bodies and go "I wonder if there is any excess deaths going on"?
- sojournerc 7y ago
  Those hot spots of mortality could like be offset by reduction of other causes of death in less affected areas. Just as a counter-point to excess mortality being obvious.
  - SiempreViernes 7y ago
    Uh, you have to provide a casual link between excess and suppression buddy, otherwise it's not a counterargument.
    - sojournerc 7y ago
      My counter-point was only that it isn't _obvious_, as you stated.
- DanBC 7y ago
  Have you read this thread where there are people still saying "covid-19 isn't that bad, it's about the same as a rough flu year"? Data helps persuade those people that this is worse than most flu years in recent history.
  - antpls 7y ago
    But would a 10% worse flu worth a global recession due to global lockdown ?
- thebruce87m 7y ago
  Yes, I have. The counter argument to that is that all the people who were going to die this year just died in the same week. This would of course temporarily overwhelm mortuaries etc but would result in no excess mortality for the year. The infection rate numbers are essentially meaningless since governments are testing differently. Others don’t even have any tests at all. The death numbers are also meaningless unless you know they are truly extra deaths that wouldn’t have occurred otherwise. Some countries are under-counting by only counting hospital deaths. Some countries are over-counting by counting any death with COVID as a COVID death. A death count in itself is meaningless without an expected death count which we almost never see. Now do I believe we have a real problem? Yes. Can I quantify it? No. Not without excess mortality data like this on an ongoing basis.

SiempreViernes 7y ago

So have you read the stories about how hospitals rent cooling containers and some cities use ice rinks to get additional storage capacity for dead bodies and go "I wonder if there is any excess deaths going on"?

sojournerc 7y ago
Those hot spots of mortality could like be offset by reduction of other causes of death in less affected areas. Just as a counter-point to excess mortality being obvious.
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  Uh, you have to provide a casual link between excess and suppression buddy, otherwise it's not a counterargument.
  - sojournerc 7y ago
    My counter-point was only that it isn't _obvious_, as you stated.
DanBC 7y ago
Have you read this thread where there are people still saying "covid-19 isn't that bad, it's about the same as a rough flu year"? Data helps persuade those people that this is worse than most flu years in recent history.
- antpls 7y ago
  But would a 10% worse flu worth a global recession due to global lockdown ?
thebruce87m 7y ago
Yes, I have. The counter argument to that is that all the people who were going to die this year just died in the same week. This would of course temporarily overwhelm mortuaries etc but would result in no excess mortality for the year. The infection rate numbers are essentially meaningless since governments are testing differently. Others don’t even have any tests at all. The death numbers are also meaningless unless you know they are truly extra deaths that wouldn’t have occurred otherwise. Some countries are under-counting by only counting hospital deaths. Some countries are over-counting by counting any death with COVID as a COVID death. A death count in itself is meaningless without an expected death count which we almost never see. Now do I believe we have a real problem? Yes. Can I quantify it? No. Not without excess mortality data like this on an ongoing basis.