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Black Swan events are unknown unknowns. White swan events are known unknowns. Pandemics are White Swan events.
by dlp211 7y ago
Black Swan events are unknown unknowns. White swan events are known unknowns. Pandemics are White Swan events.
- genidoi 7y agoSo by your reasoning, a large asteroid discovered to hit earth a month from now would be a white swan event, because we always knew it could happen.
- AQuantized 7y agoAn asteroid is definitionally a Grey Swan. Very unlikely to happen, and of great impact, but still considered possible. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp COVID-19s impact wasn't nearly unpredictable or unprecedented enough to be defined as a Black Swan imo. I did know many people both in real life and online who were concerned about it before the impact, considerably different from e.g. 2008 financial crisis.