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> It was no fault of our own because the circumstances of COVID were impossible to foresee. This is one of the biggest fallacies in modern finance. COVID was

> It was no fault of our own because the circumstances of COVID were impossible to foresee. This is one of the biggest fallacies in modern finance. COVID was merely the catalyst which exposed terrible finances. The idea of unforeseeable black swans has become nothing more than a trope of an excuse that it's lost all meaning. Sure, the pandemic itself is a "black swan" but the subset/collection of events that lend itself to economic disaster is actually not that rare. Case in point: 9/11, Tech Bubble burst, Financial Crisis, Covid-19. This was all in a span of ~20 years. So let's revisit this: Is economic collapse really that rare? No. But people construct their businesses as if they are, and we always see these house of cards tumble. The other group of businesses who acknowledge the possibility of an economic collapse subscribe to the false pretense that THEIR company is immune because they're so "essential." In both cases, growth at all costs seems to be the mantra. How is this sustainable beyond the Fed Lottery? At this point, it hasn't become a Lottery anymore.

watwut 7y ago
Issue is that system in normal state favors "house of cards" companies. Both as simply value thing, but also in material financial terms. In values, I have read a lot praise for risk taking over years and rewards for it. I have read comparatively less praise for prudent decision making or what happen when risk part of risk happen. People are said to get rich because they "took the risk" and are poor because they were either lazy or did not took risk. But the part when people take the risk and become poor is never said, as if we wanted to pretend it never happens. In finances, companies that risk a lot and grow and now are about to fail are way more likely to be saved then a company that was more responsible.
2019-nCoV 7y ago
COVID is not a black swan (unknown unknown), but a white swan (known unknown). A looming Coronavirus pandemic was a well known global catastrophic risk.

watwut 7y ago

Issue is that system in normal state favors "house of cards" companies. Both as simply value thing, but also in material financial terms. In values, I have read a lot praise for risk taking over years and rewards for it. I have read comparatively less praise for prudent decision making or what happen when risk part of risk happen. People are said to get rich because they "took the risk" and are poor because they were either lazy or did not took risk. But the part when people take the risk and become poor is never said, as if we wanted to pretend it never happens. In finances, companies that risk a lot and grow and now are about to fail are way more likely to be saved then a company that was more responsible.

2019-nCoV 7y ago

COVID is not a black swan (unknown unknown), but a white swan (known unknown). A looming Coronavirus pandemic was a well known global catastrophic risk.