7 ms·

It is temporary hysteria. Remember 'swine flu'? The infection fatality rate ended up being like 10x better than what the media initially reported.

kerkeslager 6y ago
Do you remember swine flu? The media storm died down as experts gathered more information and made recommendations. Note how with Covid19, the information has changed over time, but not enough to change expert recommendations, which have remained fairly consistent.
- steveeq1 6y ago
  No it's not, the infection fatality rate keeps going down. This is just media hype and the risks are being overblown due to the many biases in human judgment (availabiltiy bias, survivorship bias, social bias, etc).
  - kerkeslager 6y ago
    > No it's not, the infection fatality rate keeps going down. Which is why I didn't say the infection fatality rate is staying the same.
ubercow13 6y ago
Does that even matter? If the best estimate of fataility rate is what it is now, surely that is what any response should be based on. The media is reporting various figures from scientists, not making them up. If you don't calibrate your response based on such figures, what do you calibrate it based on? A gut feeling that everything will probably be fine?
- steveeq1 6y ago
  No, the media tends to report the most sensationalized numbers, not the most accurate numbers. I rely on World Health Organization type stuff, not "the news".
  - ubercow13 6y ago
    The same WHO that Trump just defunded for spreading “all sorts of false information about misinformation and mortality”?
    - steveeq1 6y ago
      yes, the same one.
      - ubercow13 6y ago
        I think it is not so clear that they are any more reliable than other sources. The media in the UK seems to have been candid about the low risk to younger people, but that's not the point is it? The governmental responses at least in the UK and US changed as it became clear it was more serious than we (or they, at least) thought, not less [1]. And this became quite apparent when it started occurring on the ground in Italy. >We are going to get hyperinflation now, US dollars will become worthless soon Now that, is sensationalism. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc...

kerkeslager 6y ago

Do you remember swine flu? The media storm died down as experts gathered more information and made recommendations. Note how with Covid19, the information has changed over time, but not enough to change expert recommendations, which have remained fairly consistent.

steveeq1 6y ago
No it's not, the infection fatality rate keeps going down. This is just media hype and the risks are being overblown due to the many biases in human judgment (availabiltiy bias, survivorship bias, social bias, etc).
- kerkeslager 6y ago
  > No it's not, the infection fatality rate keeps going down. Which is why I didn't say the infection fatality rate is staying the same.

ubercow13 6y ago

Does that even matter? If the best estimate of fataility rate is what it is now, surely that is what any response should be based on. The media is reporting various figures from scientists, not making them up. If you don't calibrate your response based on such figures, what do you calibrate it based on? A gut feeling that everything will probably be fine?

steveeq1 6y ago
No, the media tends to report the most sensationalized numbers, not the most accurate numbers. I rely on World Health Organization type stuff, not "the news".
- ubercow13 6y ago
  The same WHO that Trump just defunded for spreading “all sorts of false information about misinformation and mortality”?
  - steveeq1 6y ago
    yes, the same one.
    - ubercow13 6y ago
      I think it is not so clear that they are any more reliable than other sources. The media in the UK seems to have been candid about the low risk to younger people, but that's not the point is it? The governmental responses at least in the UK and US changed as it became clear it was more serious than we (or they, at least) thought, not less [1]. And this became quite apparent when it started occurring on the ground in Italy. >We are going to get hyperinflation now, US dollars will become worthless soon Now that, is sensationalism. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc...