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The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become

The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become unemployed, than are right now?

codenesium 7y ago
From what I've read they think it's already around 15%. It just takes a while after the fact to figure out what it is.
Izkata 7y ago
We won't have the numbers for sure until the end of the month, but based on the insane spike in initial claims [0], the US probably hit 10% last week [1]. That said, the past two weeks the claims seem to have hit their processing limit, with people still not getting through - it's guaranteed to continue rising for the rest of the month, past the numbers I have here. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA [1] 3.3 million + 6.8 + 6.6 = 16.7 million, 16.7 / 160 million (number I've seen for estimated working-age people) = 10.4%, 10.4% + 4% (previous unemployment rate) = 14.4% Quick edit, unemployment rate is updated monthly here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE - based on when it updated, that 3.3 million is already included in the 4.4%, so actually more like 4.4% + ((6.8 + 6.6) / 160) = 12.8%-ish (and more than likely still rising)
FalconSensei 7y ago
I think that's the case. Even when lockdowns start being lifted, people won't have money to spend, meaning more companies closing doors...
samfisher83 7y ago
16 million people filled for unemployment. We are way over 10% now. They haven't announced the new rate.
arkanciscan 7y ago
Whoa... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
jcranmer 7y ago
Unemployment numbers are updated monthly. The last batch of unemployment numbers were computed just before the US saw three successive weeks were new employment claims shattered records. Prior to this year, the record was about 800,000 in one week. Over the last three weeks, first 3.3 million, then 6.9 million, then 6.6 million have filed new claims. That's about 10% of the country who have become unemployed since the last monthly numbers came out, probably the steepest rise in unemployment in history.

The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become unemployed, than are right now?

codenesium 7y ago

From what I've read they think it's already around 15%. It just takes a while after the fact to figure out what it is.

Izkata 7y ago

We won't have the numbers for sure until the end of the month, but based on the insane spike in initial claims [0], the US probably hit 10% last week [1]. That said, the past two weeks the claims seem to have hit their processing limit, with people still not getting through - it's guaranteed to continue rising for the rest of the month, past the numbers I have here. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA [1] 3.3 million + 6.8 + 6.6 = 16.7 million, 16.7 / 160 million (number I've seen for estimated working-age people) = 10.4%, 10.4% + 4% (previous unemployment rate) = 14.4% Quick edit, unemployment rate is updated monthly here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE - based on when it updated, that 3.3 million is already included in the 4.4%, so actually more like 4.4% + ((6.8 + 6.6) / 160) = 12.8%-ish (and more than likely still rising)

FalconSensei 7y ago

I think that's the case. Even when lockdowns start being lifted, people won't have money to spend, meaning more companies closing doors...

samfisher83 7y ago

16 million people filled for unemployment. We are way over 10% now. They haven't announced the new rate.

arkanciscan 7y ago

Whoa... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

jcranmer 7y ago

Unemployment numbers are updated monthly. The last batch of unemployment numbers were computed just before the US saw three successive weeks were new employment claims shattered records. Prior to this year, the record was about 800,000 in one week. Over the last three weeks, first 3.3 million, then 6.9 million, then 6.6 million have filed new claims. That's about 10% of the country who have become unemployed since the last monthly numbers came out, probably the steepest rise in unemployment in history.