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The economy is basically a big network of relationships; employee relationships, business relationships, etc. Unfortunately such relationships tend to break qu
by fallingfrog 7y ago
The economy is basically a big network of relationships; employee relationships, business relationships, etc. Unfortunately such relationships tend to break quickly and in a self reinforcing cascade but can only be rebuilt slowly as businesses find that there is enough profit margin and demand to bring new people in, one at a time. That’s why recessions happen quickly and recovery time is proportional to how many people lose their jobs. You look at unemployment data for the last 50 years and the pattern is very simple: a rapid increase in unemployment and a steady recovery. The higher the spike, the longer the recovery. That being the case I would guess that the recovery from this shock will take a decade or more.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/April-Jobs-Report-1-820x493.png https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/April-...
Edit: I can’t make new posts. Someone has suggested that people will just be re-hired; historically, that has never happened. Not saying it’s impossible but this would be the first time. You can’t put a broken egg back together; entropy doesn’t go in reverse. The old jobs don’t come back, new ones are created, that’s just the way it works.
- vlunkr 7y agoIt seems likely though that lots of people after the lockdowns will simply be re-hired once lockdowns are over.
- TheHypnotist 7y agoParticularly a large portion of the service industry. Perhaps not all with some establishments potentially closing, but most will be called back. Large retail that has closed down as well.
- vlunkr 7y agoBoy I wish I could edit that for grammar now.
- jdhn 7y agoA decade or more? Really? I honestly think that we're going to see a U shaped recovery as the amount of people who want to get out and do things is increasing every day.