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Economists do not claim to know the economy, much less to the point of becoming rich. They are far more likely to insist that nobody can know such thing. You mu

Economists do not claim to know the economy, much less to the point of becoming rich. They are far more likely to insist that nobody can know such thing. You must be thinking of somebody else.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
Hardly. Economists may believe in the idea, for example, that you can't time the market, but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy, and again it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions.
- wdfefgrucg 6y ago
  First, strong opinions are not knowledge. In the event that one economist forgets that, the other nine will remind him of it. But that's hardly the case right now. There's a lot of discussion on what should be done right now on the part of economists, but it's very clear that nobody is quite sure of what to do. Which is why there is so much discussion in the first place. Second, knowledge about the economy, specially such that all could become "billionaires", is empirical knowledge and knowledge of particulars such as knowledge of when to time thr markrt. Economists have some conjectural and general knowledge regarding some policies which leads the profession to develop something akin to a consensus on certain issues (10 out of 10 is really a gross exaggeration), such as rent controls. But there has never been a proposition in economics which hasn't found defenders against any supposed consensus, specially nowadays, with the incentives to publish surprising results, and most are conscious of it. The issue with the comparison with any sort of divination is that economists do not claim to be good forecasters.
- aguyfromnb 6y ago
  >but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy I have yet to met a person on the street who doesn't have strong opinions about what economic principles should be implemented. >it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions. I don't understand why this is a bad thing. Progress is made by exploring diverging theories.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
caseysoftware 6y ago
Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and winner of the Nobel in Economic Sciences Paul Krugman would disagree with you. He's full of economic pronouncements going as far as when markets are going to crash (immediately) and their specific cause (Trump elected). You can make the case that as a columnist, he's encouraged to make predictions but most Keynesians believe in direct cause -> effect of policy decisions based on a handful of metrics that properly describe the economy as a whole.
- dlp211 6y ago
  Krugman walked that back and apologized and reflected on the fact that he to is human and liable to let his emotions get a hold of him.
  - mistermann 6y ago
    Does the point not stand though?

Economists do not claim to know the economy, much less to the point of becoming rich. They are far more likely to insist that nobody can know such thing. You must be thinking of somebody else.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

Hardly. Economists may believe in the idea, for example, that you can't time the market, but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy, and again it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions.

wdfefgrucg 6y ago
First, strong opinions are not knowledge. In the event that one economist forgets that, the other nine will remind him of it. But that's hardly the case right now. There's a lot of discussion on what should be done right now on the part of economists, but it's very clear that nobody is quite sure of what to do. Which is why there is so much discussion in the first place. Second, knowledge about the economy, specially such that all could become "billionaires", is empirical knowledge and knowledge of particulars such as knowledge of when to time thr markrt. Economists have some conjectural and general knowledge regarding some policies which leads the profession to develop something akin to a consensus on certain issues (10 out of 10 is really a gross exaggeration), such as rent controls. But there has never been a proposition in economics which hasn't found defenders against any supposed consensus, specially nowadays, with the incentives to publish surprising results, and most are conscious of it. The issue with the comparison with any sort of divination is that economists do not claim to be good forecasters.
aguyfromnb 6y ago
>but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy I have yet to met a person on the street who doesn't have strong opinions about what economic principles should be implemented. >it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions. I don't understand why this is a bad thing. Progress is made by exploring diverging theories.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

caseysoftware 6y ago

Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and winner of the Nobel in Economic Sciences Paul Krugman would disagree with you. He's full of economic pronouncements going as far as when markets are going to crash (immediately) and their specific cause (Trump elected). You can make the case that as a columnist, he's encouraged to make predictions but most Keynesians believe in direct cause -> effect of policy decisions based on a handful of metrics that properly describe the economy as a whole.

dlp211 6y ago
Krugman walked that back and apologized and reflected on the fact that he to is human and liable to let his emotions get a hold of him.
- mistermann 6y ago
  Does the point not stand though?