Depends. If active cases can be pushed down to a mange-able level (i.e. a level where contact tracing is a realistic option and outbreaks can be, by and large,

Depends. If active cases can be pushed down to a mange-able level (i.e. a level where contact tracing is a realistic option and outbreaks can be, by and large, contained) a return to relative normalcy could still be possible. So that’s another one, two months of tight lockdown to push down active cases (to, say, 500 in the NY area). Then it becomes feasible to throw massive amounts of people at those 500 cases and to do aggressive contact tracing and quarantining of all contacts. Maybe just by people interviewing the infected, calling around, playing detective (a bit slow), maybe also with the help of contact tracing through mobile phones. Also, you obviously would need to be able to test for the virus (ideally) whenever someone shows the slightest hint of related symptoms (and since those are so unspecific and not exactly rare you would have to expand testing capability). Some measures will obviously stay in place, but many of the most drastic and impactful ones could be reduced since there wouldn’t really be uncontrollable community spread. That, to me, sounds like a realistic plan (unlike a complete lockdown until then or trying to let the wave wash over us) for the time until we have a vaccine and until that vaccine is availible in sufficient quantities. Of course, this depends a lot on whether we can push down active cases so low. South Korea seems to be nearly or already there. Of course we do not know whether China tells the complete truth, but even if they lie quite a bit they are also probably nearly or already there. Outbreaks with exponential growth haven’t happened there at least, of that we can be relatively certain (because that would be hard to hide). So, yeah, it’s probably possible if we can push effective R a bit below zero for a couple of weeks to get into a position where we can regain control. Maybe. Hopefully.