7 ms·

To put this in perspective, it has happened before along similar lines in different produce types. For example, almost all of the vineyards in Europe were wipe

To put this in perspective, it has happened before along similar lines in different produce types. For example, almost all of the vineyards in Europe were wiped out in the 19th century [1]. This is why the oldest vineyards in the world are somewhere in South America. (I think Chile?) Today, as we all know, France is still the most important wine producing country. South Africa has 100k hectares of wine; France has 100k hectares of merlot. Yes, people can do more to handle these diseases, but often the simplest way is with a lot of poison, which many people also don't like. Tuta absoluta wiped out 1/2 of the yearly Egyptian tomato crop few years ago and yet it's pretty similar to what we call aartappelmot and unfortunately the way to handle it is with a lot of poison. By the way, this is why I emphasise that policy is not the main issue in agriculture. The issue is efficiency and efficacy. For example, I am working on building a system that improves time of application of pesticides. (Before getting there, there are some lower hanging fruit to pick.) It's a major problem for farmers of all sizes as the people selling the pesticides actually have an incentive to get you to buy more and more. But the key is to apply at the right stage of the particular pest's life cycle. And as someone who likes mathematics, it's satisfying work due to the inherent complexity of agriculture. [1] I think this is the one we're looking for: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_French_Wine_Blight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_French_Wine_Blight

clows 7y ago
A minor difference: > The slow-growing trees take 65 to 80 years to reach stable yields. https://www.hunker.com/13428601/how-long-does-it-take-for-an-olive-tree-to-produce-fruit https://www.hunker.com/13428601/how-long-does-it-take-for-an...
- mnky9800n 7y ago
  Same for Maple syrup. You plant trees so your kids can make syrup. I'm 34 and if I planted a sugar Bush today I would be dead by the time it's viable.
- glaberficken 7y ago
  While factually true, this does not apply at all to how olive trees are farmed in intensive plantations in the real world. The typical modern plantation in Spain/Portugal uses very young and small trees (they start giving fruit by year 4) supported by intensive automated watering (typically from nearby dam projects) and with the trees spaced out just right for automated picking. Like this photo: https://images.impresa.pt/expresso/2019-09-06-pag16_T-_IDP.jpg/original/mw-860 https://images.impresa.pt/expresso/2019-09-06-pag16_T-_IDP.j...
- mikorym 7y ago
  In your same reference: > Olive varieties. Speed things along by choosing the right cultivar. Olea europaea "Rubra" not only can begin producing fruit in its second year, but it also bears prolifically and is a relatively early ripener. "Koroneiki" and "Arbequina" begin fruiting early, at about three years old, compared with other varieties that take five to 12 years to reach bearing. "Koroneiki" is the primary variety grown in Greece for oil production. "Arbequina" is commonly used with newer agricultural methods for high-density planting for olive orchards. All three cultivars are hardy in USDA zones 8 through 10.
thaumasiotes 7y ago
> It's a major problem for farmers of all sizes as the people selling the pesticides actually have an incentive to get you to buy more and more. Hey, this reminds me of the difference between the amount of laundry detergent the washing machine says you should use, the amount the detergent says you need to use, and the amount the detergent has a measuring line for.
quietbritishjim 7y ago
> For example, almost all of the vineyards in Europe were wiped out in the 19th century [1]. ... Today, as we all know, France is still the most important wine producing country. Without any more information than this comment, even if you assume olive producing is like wine making, that analogy just means that in over 150 years from now things will be back to normal. That's not much consolation to people owning failing olive farms now.
- mikorym 7y ago
  I think the point is not that European production could not be seriously hampered, but that these threats happen more often than we tend to realise. As a side comment: Xylella fastidiosa is worse than Tuta absoluta in terms of the time frame, but olive oil trees (as another comment has mentioned) are much quicker to re-establish with modern farming techniques. Avocado trees were once considered to be productive if they are really big, but the current knowledge is the smaller they are the better—with heights of as small as 2m and spacing of 2.5m x 6m. Edit: "Much quicker" can still be a long time. With date palms, you are looking at a 15 year investment before you get high enough yields for positive cashflow.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
yaktubi 7y ago
I think it would be great if you could invest in creating biodiversity more so than accelerating mono-culture agriculture with pesticides. The real problem is that these folks (And all other cash crops) have rows and rows of the same crop and nothing else. That’s not how nature works. Work WITH nature by creating bio-diversity and pests will be eaten by something else, etc. If you haven’t seen it, I recommend watching “Biggest Little Farm” https://www.biggestlittlefarmmovie.com/ https://www.biggestlittlefarmmovie.com/
- lordlimecat 7y ago
  The article notes that this affects multiple olive varieties as well as almond and cherry. I don't think this is the time for a monoculture soapbox.
  - rini17 7y ago
    I filed your comment in the "Your statement is correct but misses the point" box. Why? There are millions of other plant species aside from almond and cherry, thousands of them edible and many of them support natural predators for the insects that spread Xylella.
  - yaktubi 7y ago
    My goatsac vibrates many oscillations
- mikorym 7y ago
  I don't think that monoculture (or agriculture in 2020) is a problem in of itself. The problem is producing food, and science attempts to improves the efficiency. The methods that work so far are things like crop rotation, and anything away from monoculture should generally be attempted scientifically. If you look at things like deforestation in Indonesia for palm oil, I wouldn't say the problem is the monocultured palm oil: The problem is they are cutting down forests, whether they plant ten crops on the burnt land or one. One example is nematode diversity. The more diverse your nematodes, the better your yield. If you kill all the nematodes then you have one season of massive yields followed by really vicious Meloidogyne the next couple of years. If you condition your soil for diverse nematodes (e.g.: multiple genetically diverse rootstocks) then from the top it will look like monoculture (and it is), but your costs and impact with regard to nematicide will go down.
notechback 7y ago
And the effects are still there today: most French wines are grafted onto roots of resistant American varieties as otherwise the more would still kill them today. This might mean much less olive diversity.

clows 7y ago

A minor difference: > The slow-growing trees take 65 to 80 years to reach stable yields. https://www.hunker.com/13428601/how-long-does-it-take-for-an-olive-tree-to-produce-fruit https://www.hunker.com/13428601/how-long-does-it-take-for-an...

mnky9800n 7y ago
Same for Maple syrup. You plant trees so your kids can make syrup. I'm 34 and if I planted a sugar Bush today I would be dead by the time it's viable.
glaberficken 7y ago
While factually true, this does not apply at all to how olive trees are farmed in intensive plantations in the real world. The typical modern plantation in Spain/Portugal uses very young and small trees (they start giving fruit by year 4) supported by intensive automated watering (typically from nearby dam projects) and with the trees spaced out just right for automated picking. Like this photo: https://images.impresa.pt/expresso/2019-09-06-pag16_T-_IDP.jpg/original/mw-860 https://images.impresa.pt/expresso/2019-09-06-pag16_T-_IDP.j...
mikorym 7y ago
In your same reference: > Olive varieties. Speed things along by choosing the right cultivar. Olea europaea "Rubra" not only can begin producing fruit in its second year, but it also bears prolifically and is a relatively early ripener. "Koroneiki" and "Arbequina" begin fruiting early, at about three years old, compared with other varieties that take five to 12 years to reach bearing. "Koroneiki" is the primary variety grown in Greece for oil production. "Arbequina" is commonly used with newer agricultural methods for high-density planting for olive orchards. All three cultivars are hardy in USDA zones 8 through 10.

thaumasiotes 7y ago

> It's a major problem for farmers of all sizes as the people selling the pesticides actually have an incentive to get you to buy more and more. Hey, this reminds me of the difference between the amount of laundry detergent the washing machine says you should use, the amount the detergent says you need to use, and the amount the detergent has a measuring line for.

quietbritishjim 7y ago

> For example, almost all of the vineyards in Europe were wiped out in the 19th century [1]. ... Today, as we all know, France is still the most important wine producing country. Without any more information than this comment, even if you assume olive producing is like wine making, that analogy just means that in over 150 years from now things will be back to normal. That's not much consolation to people owning failing olive farms now.

mikorym 7y ago
I think the point is not that European production could not be seriously hampered, but that these threats happen more often than we tend to realise. As a side comment: Xylella fastidiosa is worse than Tuta absoluta in terms of the time frame, but olive oil trees (as another comment has mentioned) are much quicker to re-establish with modern farming techniques. Avocado trees were once considered to be productive if they are really big, but the current knowledge is the smaller they are the better—with heights of as small as 2m and spacing of 2.5m x 6m. Edit: "Much quicker" can still be a long time. With date palms, you are looking at a 15 year investment before you get high enough yields for positive cashflow.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

yaktubi 7y ago

I think it would be great if you could invest in creating biodiversity more so than accelerating mono-culture agriculture with pesticides. The real problem is that these folks (And all other cash crops) have rows and rows of the same crop and nothing else. That’s not how nature works. Work WITH nature by creating bio-diversity and pests will be eaten by something else, etc. If you haven’t seen it, I recommend watching “Biggest Little Farm” https://www.biggestlittlefarmmovie.com/ https://www.biggestlittlefarmmovie.com/

lordlimecat 7y ago
The article notes that this affects multiple olive varieties as well as almond and cherry. I don't think this is the time for a monoculture soapbox.
- rini17 7y ago
  I filed your comment in the "Your statement is correct but misses the point" box. Why? There are millions of other plant species aside from almond and cherry, thousands of them edible and many of them support natural predators for the insects that spread Xylella.
- yaktubi 7y ago
  My goatsac vibrates many oscillations
mikorym 7y ago
I don't think that monoculture (or agriculture in 2020) is a problem in of itself. The problem is producing food, and science attempts to improves the efficiency. The methods that work so far are things like crop rotation, and anything away from monoculture should generally be attempted scientifically. If you look at things like deforestation in Indonesia for palm oil, I wouldn't say the problem is the monocultured palm oil: The problem is they are cutting down forests, whether they plant ten crops on the burnt land or one. One example is nematode diversity. The more diverse your nematodes, the better your yield. If you kill all the nematodes then you have one season of massive yields followed by really vicious Meloidogyne the next couple of years. If you condition your soil for diverse nematodes (e.g.: multiple genetically diverse rootstocks) then from the top it will look like monoculture (and it is), but your costs and impact with regard to nematicide will go down.

notechback 7y ago

And the effects are still there today: most French wines are grafted onto roots of resistant American varieties as otherwise the more would still kill them today. This might mean much less olive diversity.