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If you are elderly than you should definitely fear death. But yes if you are under 50 it's more likely you will be killed driving to the hospital than by the vi

If you are elderly than you should definitely fear death. But yes if you are under 50 it's more likely you will be killed driving to the hospital than by the virus.

dboreham 7y ago
Wait what? Assuming a 10 mile journey, the probability of death is 1.25E-7. CFR for 20-49 age group is 0.3% (probability 3E-3) So either my math is wrong or you are wrong by only 4 orders of magnitude.
- Xenograph 7y ago
  Keep in mind that CFR takes into account only those that are confirmed positive (which are mostly people who already have severe symptoms). That said, parent comment's math is still way off (see my sibling comment).
  - dboreham 7y ago
    Parent cited a postitive testing patient, driving themselves to hospital.
Xenograph 7y ago
> if you are under 50 it's more likely you will be killed driving to the hospital than by the virus. Apologies if this was intended to be hyperbole, but it is not true according to our current knowledge. Estimated fatality rate for adults 20-30 is 0.03%, 30-40 is 0.08%, and 40-50 and 0.16% [1] The probability of dying from one single vehicle ride to the hospital is several orders of magnitude less than 0.1% or even 0.01%. There are 1.25 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles driven in the USA [2]. Even if the hospital is 100 miles away, your odds of dying on the way there are 0.000125%. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Prognosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Progn... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...
- DoreenMichele 7y ago
  I'm guessing the intent was more along the lines of "Car trips generally are more deadly on an annual basis and we don't stress about that. In fact, if you try to encourage people to walk, bike and take public transit based on the idea that car trips kill and maim, you will be generally blown off."
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  Don't forget that automobile fatalities are far lower now with significantly reduced traffic due to lockdowns. This analogy works without coronavirus existing and only then.
- GhostVII 7y ago
  Fair enough, it was just an offhand comment I should have run the numbers. It looks like if you are under 50 and have COVID, you are ~3x more likely to die of COVID then to die of a car crash in that same year. So that's probably the better comparison when looking at risk, although it probably says more about how we underestimate the risk of car crashes rather than overestimating the risk of COVID. Rough average COVID deaths per 100k infected under 50 (using average death rate from categories 0-50): 36 Deaths per 100k by car crashes in a year in the US: 11.2
coldtea 7y ago
If you got the covid, it's actually 4 orders of magnitude more probable to kill you than being "killed driving to the hospital".

If you are elderly than you should definitely fear death. But yes if you are under 50 it's more likely you will be killed driving to the hospital than by the virus.

dboreham 7y ago

Wait what? Assuming a 10 mile journey, the probability of death is 1.25E-7. CFR for 20-49 age group is 0.3% (probability 3E-3) So either my math is wrong or you are wrong by only 4 orders of magnitude.

Xenograph 7y ago
Keep in mind that CFR takes into account only those that are confirmed positive (which are mostly people who already have severe symptoms). That said, parent comment's math is still way off (see my sibling comment).
- dboreham 7y ago
  Parent cited a postitive testing patient, driving themselves to hospital.

Xenograph 7y ago

> if you are under 50 it's more likely you will be killed driving to the hospital than by the virus. Apologies if this was intended to be hyperbole, but it is not true according to our current knowledge. Estimated fatality rate for adults 20-30 is 0.03%, 30-40 is 0.08%, and 40-50 and 0.16% [1] The probability of dying from one single vehicle ride to the hospital is several orders of magnitude less than 0.1% or even 0.01%. There are 1.25 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles driven in the USA [2]. Even if the hospital is 100 miles away, your odds of dying on the way there are 0.000125%. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Prognosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Progn... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...

DoreenMichele 7y ago
I'm guessing the intent was more along the lines of "Car trips generally are more deadly on an annual basis and we don't stress about that. In fact, if you try to encourage people to walk, bike and take public transit based on the idea that car trips kill and maim, you will be generally blown off."
Der_Einzige 7y ago
Don't forget that automobile fatalities are far lower now with significantly reduced traffic due to lockdowns. This analogy works without coronavirus existing and only then.
GhostVII 7y ago
Fair enough, it was just an offhand comment I should have run the numbers. It looks like if you are under 50 and have COVID, you are ~3x more likely to die of COVID then to die of a car crash in that same year. So that's probably the better comparison when looking at risk, although it probably says more about how we underestimate the risk of car crashes rather than overestimating the risk of COVID. Rough average COVID deaths per 100k infected under 50 (using average death rate from categories 0-50): 36 Deaths per 100k by car crashes in a year in the US: 11.2

coldtea 7y ago

If you got the covid, it's actually 4 orders of magnitude more probable to kill you than being "killed driving to the hospital".