6 ms·

> less likely that a covid19 death goes unreported I don't think this is true at all. Many people die at home. Many die without having ever been officially tes

by _bxg1 7y ago

> less likely that a covid19 death goes unreported I don't think this is true at all. Many people die at home. Many die without having ever been officially tested. I've read that in some places the death toll is only counted from those who were tested and then died in a hospital.

MikeAmelung 7y ago
It's definitely still "less likely" that a death goes unreported versus an infection without a death. Both numbers are shit, but deaths likely less so.
- aledalgrande 7y ago
  I think deaths might be unreliable too, because 1) we don't know the mortality rate, we're extrapolating it from bad data and then using an extrapolated number to calculate a trend and 2) mortality rate would change between different groups, e.g. sick and old people vs healthy people, depending how infections spread.
  - spuz 7y ago
    That's why we're talking about deaths, not mortality. Mortality requires you to know the number of people who are infected which as stated above can be inaccurate because many people are not getting tested. However, it's less likely that a person who dies of pneumonia in hospital won't be tested. Also, there is likely to be a smaller proportion of deaths happening outside of hospitals than there are infections so you should consider the number of deaths to be more accurate than the number of cases.
    - akiselev 7y ago
      > That's why we're talking about deaths, not mortality. I believe you're confusing fatality and mortality. The correct version of that statement is: "That's why we're talking about mortality, not fatality. The case fatality rate is the ratio of number of deaths to the number of people who are confirmed to have the disease (which depends a lot on standard of care, reporting, and bureaucratic integrity) whereas mortality rate is the rate of deaths in general.
  - gadders 7y ago
    Deaths are also unreliable because a) COVID-19 deaths are being reported differently as a notifiable disease (in the UK at least) as compared to, say, influenza and b) autopies are not being carried out on COVID-19 cases due to how contagious it is.
akiselev 7y ago
Many people die all the time but it's much harder to hide how many people die total in a developed nation for systemic reasons. Except for natural disasters, the mortality rate for a country the size of the United States or Italy is surprisingly stable. The difference between deaths in March 2019 and March 2020 gives a lot more reliable information on the impact of the virus than testing numbers, which are limited by the availability of tests and the testing procedure (contact tracing vs testing only the highest risk patients or the most severe cases). However, this is just a more concrete measure of the extreme impact of the virus. Without a lot more data, it's not enough to even predict how many people have it or how infectious/deadly it is.

by _bxg1 7y ago

MikeAmelung 7y ago

It's definitely still "less likely" that a death goes unreported versus an infection without a death. Both numbers are shit, but deaths likely less so.

aledalgrande 7y ago
I think deaths might be unreliable too, because 1) we don't know the mortality rate, we're extrapolating it from bad data and then using an extrapolated number to calculate a trend and 2) mortality rate would change between different groups, e.g. sick and old people vs healthy people, depending how infections spread.
- spuz 7y ago
  That's why we're talking about deaths, not mortality. Mortality requires you to know the number of people who are infected which as stated above can be inaccurate because many people are not getting tested. However, it's less likely that a person who dies of pneumonia in hospital won't be tested. Also, there is likely to be a smaller proportion of deaths happening outside of hospitals than there are infections so you should consider the number of deaths to be more accurate than the number of cases.
  - akiselev 7y ago
    > That's why we're talking about deaths, not mortality. I believe you're confusing fatality and mortality. The correct version of that statement is: "That's why we're talking about mortality, not fatality. The case fatality rate is the ratio of number of deaths to the number of people who are confirmed to have the disease (which depends a lot on standard of care, reporting, and bureaucratic integrity) whereas mortality rate is the rate of deaths in general.
- gadders 7y ago
  Deaths are also unreliable because a) COVID-19 deaths are being reported differently as a notifiable disease (in the UK at least) as compared to, say, influenza and b) autopies are not being carried out on COVID-19 cases due to how contagious it is.

akiselev 7y ago

Many people die all the time but it's much harder to hide how many people die total in a developed nation for systemic reasons. Except for natural disasters, the mortality rate for a country the size of the United States or Italy is surprisingly stable. The difference between deaths in March 2019 and March 2020 gives a lot more reliable information on the impact of the virus than testing numbers, which are limited by the availability of tests and the testing procedure (contact tracing vs testing only the highest risk patients or the most severe cases). However, this is just a more concrete measure of the extreme impact of the virus. Without a lot more data, it's not enough to even predict how many people have it or how infectious/deadly it is.