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> We need to see a decline in the rate of spread of the virus before large-scale reopening, and we will be working in coordination to identify the best metrics
by nostromo 7y ago
> We need to see a decline in the rate of spread of the virus before large-scale reopening, and we will be working in coordination to identify the best metrics to guide this.
What's the end game here?
If you slow the spread, and then reopen, it'll spread again. Nothing will have changed, you'll just have delayed it a bit.
- oliv__ 7y agoJust let everyone get it. Problem solved.
- triceratops 7y agoYes, that is the end goal. It's the timeline over which everyone gets it that matters.
- kevingadd 7y agoIf you read the announcement: > Ensuring an ability to care for those who may become sick with COVID-19 and other conditions. This will require adequate hospital surge capacity and supplies of personal protective equipment. Delaying it is the point, it ensures we have enough hospital capacity and PPE to handle the inevitable burst of cases when reopening. This is what people mean when they say "flatten the curve". If we simply open whenever and aren't prepared we'll have a massive spike in cases that exceeds hospital capacity, vs the current situation where the case growth is slower and hospitals are less burdened.
- nostromo 7y agoAt the current rate of infection that plan will require many years of quarantine. We need more people exposed, not fewer.
- kelnos 7y agoThat assumes no investment in upgrading our hospital capacity and testing & PPE production. At one end of the spectrum you have (mythically) infinite hospital capacity and staffing, testing capacity, and contact tracing ability. In that world, you reopen everything, and let people go about their lives. At current capacity, we need to slow things down. If we can increase capacity enough in the coming weeks and months, we'll need to slow things down much less.
- acid__ 7y agoThings were quite bad but they've improved rapidly over the past weeks and months. Hospitals have actually, counter-intuitively, seen a reduction in usage. The number of hospitalizations has been far lower than expected (~20% of IHME's modeled values) and when combined with the fact that non-COVID patients have been avoiding hospitals (even for serious emergencies like heart attacks and strokes!), many are reporting entire wards being completely unused according to reports from medical professionals on Twitter, Facebook, and r/medicine. Also, 150,000 test results are coming in every day. That's 5x the per-capita testing rate of South Korea (~5,000 tests per day) and while we certainly can and should increase testing dramatically, the US is actually doing pretty well on testing relative to global numbers.
- robocat 7y agoSouth Korea has excess testing capacity: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/south-korea-ramps-up-exports-of-covid-19-testing-kits/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/south-korea-ramps-up-exports... So far they have done 500000 tests, but they got started early, and controlled their outbreak much better. In recent news the US just bought 600000 tests from South Korea. “The South Korean companies behind the kits are now churning out enough to test at least 135,000 people per day. The stabilizing situation at home has enabled these firms to export more of this extra capacity.”
- frank2 7y agoAre you volunteering?
- nostromo 7y agoYes, I am willing to go about my regular life and risk contracting SARS-CoV-2, and I wouldn't visit any at risk friends or family in person while doing so.