In the next 10 years, new car sales are likely to shift to almost entirely electric. Based on the history of disruptive innovations, there is good reason to be

In the next 10 years, new car sales are likely to shift to almost entirely electric. Based on the history of disruptive innovations, there is good reason to believe that established automotive companies will fail to make that shift in technology. (This despite top down efforts at many of them to make it happen. Based on history, such top down efforts are common in companies facing disruptive innovation, and only rarely succeed.) TSLA is a bet on whether that happens, and whether Tesla is one of the winners. If existing automotive companies can survive, or if the winners are electric car companies in places like China and India, then Tesla will go to 0. The depth to which software is embedded in Tesla is a competitive advantage for them. But a future where they are pure software is a future where their stock price is unjustifiable - they have to be building and selling cars.