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I think this line of reasoning oversimplifies what those of us that want to see economic impacts addressed (at least some portion of us) really are expecting.

I think this line of reasoning oversimplifies what those of us that want to see economic impacts addressed (at least some portion of us) really are expecting. I have been cautiously supportive of the lock downs, but I'm greatly concerned that policy makers are simply not playing the long game. I hear far too many speeches in the "think of the children" category of emotional appeals, talk of sacrifice, and very little else other than wait it out. Really? I want to hear the plan about ramping up testing so we can actual get a sense of the real level of danger of the disease. I want to understand how that testing can inform who can go back to work and under what conditions. I want to hear the plans related to scaling up how we deal with the sick. Or, I want a clear expression of why locking down and just waiting it out doesn't lead to civil breakdown. But indefinite lock-downs are not a plan. They aren't insightful nor are the particularly clever, though they are more clever than just ignoring the situation. That we needed to buy time I get. I am increasingly thinking that the time we're buying is being squandered by policy makers that simply aren't up to the task. I found the study you linked interesting, though I wish it discussed more the differences in what they called NPI (non-pharma interventions) between then and now. Also, I'm not sure how far the economic comparisons hold; we have much longer and substantially more integrated supply chains than we did back then. Information flows are also significantly faster now and this allows for much less inventory keeping (think just in time manufacture), so I would expect higher resiliency in some sense to disruptions in the past than we have today. I'm armchair quarterbacking this a bit, I work with companies that make or distribute stuff so I can make some educated guesses, so I'm less convinced how far the previous pandemic can inform our economic actions for the current one.

Loughla 7y ago
>I want to hear the plan about ramping up testing so we can actual get a sense of the real level of danger of the disease. I want to understand how that testing can inform who can go back to work and under what conditions. I want to hear the plans related to scaling up how we deal with the sick. I would throw my support behind literally any candidate that laid out any of these things clearly. Any candidate at any level. Because not one of them, nationally, at the state level, or locally, are even attempting this. It's like they're just hoping a month long lock-down will cure the problem. Poof, magic. > I am increasingly thinking that the time we're buying is being squandered by policy makers that simply aren't up to the task I 100% agree with this. The lock down for my state has been in effect for a while now. And it seems like not one thing has changed, except for the rhetoric is becoming more and more wishful, instead of hopeful. There seems to be zero plan about how to come out of this without another massive spike in cases. No talk of testing. No talk of what services will open with priority. No talk of anything but 'stay home'. That's well and good (and I do love it), but what about next month? What happens when we have done nothing and have another spike in cases because we wished ourselves into doing nothing?

Loughla 7y ago

>I want to hear the plan about ramping up testing so we can actual get a sense of the real level of danger of the disease. I want to understand how that testing can inform who can go back to work and under what conditions. I want to hear the plans related to scaling up how we deal with the sick. I would throw my support behind literally any candidate that laid out any of these things clearly. Any candidate at any level. Because not one of them, nationally, at the state level, or locally, are even attempting this. It's like they're just hoping a month long lock-down will cure the problem. Poof, magic. > I am increasingly thinking that the time we're buying is being squandered by policy makers that simply aren't up to the task I 100% agree with this. The lock down for my state has been in effect for a while now. And it seems like not one thing has changed, except for the rhetoric is becoming more and more wishful, instead of hopeful. There seems to be zero plan about how to come out of this without another massive spike in cases. No talk of testing. No talk of what services will open with priority. No talk of anything but 'stay home'. That's well and good (and I do love it), but what about next month? What happens when we have done nothing and have another spike in cases because we wished ourselves into doing nothing?