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I haven’t seen much analysis of the possibility that most of the rapid job losses are in areas of the economy that just don’t matter much for aggregated product

by mlthoughts2018 7y ago

I haven’t seen much analysis of the possibility that most of the rapid job losses are in areas of the economy that just don’t matter much for aggregated productivity or economic health. Essentially, we really had ~10% “unproductive employment” or “discretionary employment” all along, and the virus just highlighted what was already there. Taking that group of previously employed people out of the labor market just doesn’t have a big side-effect. The spending they otherwise would have engaged in had they kept getting paychecks would is just not a significant amount of spending except in a few cases here or there, it’s not systemic, just a downward adjustment. Lots and lots of small shops, restaurants, pet groomers, or freelancers might not get jobs back, and things become a bit inconvenient for everyone else but life moves on, the general backbone of the economy is pretty much unchanged. Just about the same volume of food & staples, energy, rent, repairs, education, and entertainment will be purchased as before, set back by ~6 months of lost revenue. Obviously for the actual people laid off, it’s a disaster and they personally deserve economic help to sustain to find new work and have medical care throughout. But the experience of this group of people isn’t the experience of the overall economy. I have no idea if this is even remotely correct or what, but just feel like nobody is playing devil’s advocate and analyzing the economy this way just to investigate. What if it’s just true that there’s a pretty large layer of the workforce and employers that could disappear overnight and the economic response from everyone else is just that it’s sad but fine? We’d love the luxury of lots of coffee shops, start-ups, self-employed fringe service gigs, but at a moment’s notice you can take all that away and it’s fine. Those weren’t ever really real jobs, just floating “good times” jobs already not factored in much to stock market speculation or core economic growth and productivity.

goodmachine 7y ago
> We’d love the luxury of lots of coffee shops, start-ups, self-employed fringe service gigs, but at a moment’s notice you can take all that away and it’s fine. Those weren’t ever really real jobs, just floating “good times” jobs already not factored in much to stock market speculation or core economic growth and productivity. If I were the devil, I wouldn't want you for an advocate. I'm also pretty sure you don't mean to sound like a fool or a wretch, but here it is: in the UK, SME's (under 50 employees, ie the businesses most likely to die during the lockdown/ consequent upfuckery) make up fully three fifths of the employment base, and around half of turnover in the private sector. Not real jobs? Not core? FFS. https://www.fsb.org.uk/uk-small-business-statistics.html https://www.fsb.org.uk/uk-small-business-statistics.html
- mlthoughts2018 7y ago
  I’ll set your attitude aside despite you seeming to associate the thesis of my last comment somehow with my personal beliefs, even though I went out of my way to explicitly say it was a devil’s advocate argument. Despite this, what about your comment is supposed to change my mind? The raw % of job headcount impacted says nothing without weighting it by some measure of productivity. Maybe 3/5 of workers contribute 1/100 of economic activity?
soared 7y ago
The basis for your argument is incorrect though (regardless of opinions after it). Its not only small shops, restaurants, etc who are losing jobs. High skill workers, highly paid tech employees, etc are losing jobs as well. You can't really make a claim as to when or if those jobs will return, as it could be years. Even if revenue is the same but 6 months set back, that could easily mean a 24 month delay in hiring while the company repays debts and recovers.
- mlthoughts2018 7y ago
  I haven’t seen any data or reporting that backs up your comment. I’ve read about large layoffs in retail, entertainment, hospitality, gig workers, and startups with poor financials. I haven’t heard of significant layoffs at established white collar firms with stable business models. I do expect some impact there, especially in adtech, but I’m not seeing anything like what you are claiming.

goodmachine 7y ago

> We’d love the luxury of lots of coffee shops, start-ups, self-employed fringe service gigs, but at a moment’s notice you can take all that away and it’s fine. Those weren’t ever really real jobs, just floating “good times” jobs already not factored in much to stock market speculation or core economic growth and productivity. If I were the devil, I wouldn't want you for an advocate. I'm also pretty sure you don't mean to sound like a fool or a wretch, but here it is: in the UK, SME's (under 50 employees, ie the businesses most likely to die during the lockdown/ consequent upfuckery) make up fully three fifths of the employment base, and around half of turnover in the private sector. Not real jobs? Not core? FFS. https://www.fsb.org.uk/uk-small-business-statistics.html https://www.fsb.org.uk/uk-small-business-statistics.html

mlthoughts2018 7y ago
I’ll set your attitude aside despite you seeming to associate the thesis of my last comment somehow with my personal beliefs, even though I went out of my way to explicitly say it was a devil’s advocate argument. Despite this, what about your comment is supposed to change my mind? The raw % of job headcount impacted says nothing without weighting it by some measure of productivity. Maybe 3/5 of workers contribute 1/100 of economic activity?

soared 7y ago

The basis for your argument is incorrect though (regardless of opinions after it). Its not only small shops, restaurants, etc who are losing jobs. High skill workers, highly paid tech employees, etc are losing jobs as well. You can't really make a claim as to when or if those jobs will return, as it could be years. Even if revenue is the same but 6 months set back, that could easily mean a 24 month delay in hiring while the company repays debts and recovers.

mlthoughts2018 7y ago
I haven’t seen any data or reporting that backs up your comment. I’ve read about large layoffs in retail, entertainment, hospitality, gig workers, and startups with poor financials. I haven’t heard of significant layoffs at established white collar firms with stable business models. I do expect some impact there, especially in adtech, but I’m not seeing anything like what you are claiming.