5 ms·

The rate of nuclear reactor production being low isn't a force we of nature, its a choice. They choose to produce reactors slowly, and hence they choose to tran

The rate of nuclear reactor production being low isn't a force we of nature, its a choice. They choose to produce reactors slowly, and hence they choose to transition away from nuclear and to renewable and imported coal in whatever ratios.

_ph_ 7y ago
But the choice how many new reactors are getting built happens for a reason: in France it is clearly the price, not political resistance. If a nation like France, which runs to 75% on nuclear, doesn't build new reactors, who else would be doing it? And of course, their currently sole attempt to build a new reactor confirms this: late and way over budget. The new reactor in Flammaville already costs 12 billion, but it isn't operating yet. And that is only the building costs. Do the math what this means for the renewal of the whole fleet of French reactors.
- simias 7y ago
  It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy though. As we build fewer reactors we lose economies of scales, we lose sub-contractors, we lose the knowledge to build these reactors efficiently and without incurring huge financial penalties due to delays and sub-standard deliveries by contractors. This in turn is used to justify building fewer reactors which creates this feedback loop. You can always expect the first type of a new reactor (like this EPR design we've been working on) is going to face challenges, missed deadlines and cost inflation. If in the long run you plan to build a hundred of those it doesn't matter as much as if you only have 4-ish reactors in the pipeline.
  - _ph_ 7y ago
    Right. But what are the realistic prospects of the next EPR designs getting considerably cheaper? I am very excited about any new design which has a good chance to be cheaper, but so far the track record hasn't been very good. And of course, we haven't talked about the nuclear waste.
    - pfdietz 7y ago
      The prospects are poor. Cost improvement comes from iteration and learning, and demand for new reactors is low. Even when they are built, the time span is so long that learning is balanced by forgetting.
  - cycomanic 7y ago
    You will never get economies of scale with nuclear. There is just not enough of them being build and wouldn't be even if we'd go full nuclear. You need to build to local conditions etc.. Also for those of you who say it's a problem of too much regulation. That's a hilarious proposition: yes sure let's remove regulatory control over technology which could yield large areas of densely inhabited aras no go zones for 100s of years (even if it's 10s it would be unacceptable). It's not like it has been shown over and over again that if you remove regulatory control companies will start taking shortcuts to maximize profits
    - simias 7y ago
      There might not be huge economies of scale but there seems to be a baseline under which we basically lose our capacity to build more power plants. At this point we have additional delays and costs (and loss of trust) because of manufacturing errors. That seems to be a real problem for Areva nowadays.
- rakoo 7y ago
  The administration of this new reactor's construction was a farce from the beginning: they expected to be able to build this reactor in half the time and half the price it took when France was building 10 reactors in parallel, ie when it still had experience. There is no doubt that the estimation was not just optimistic, but unrealistic (not my word, the word of the rapport on the overblown budget of this reactor) That said, it's still going to be a good amount. The danger that too many people do is that they don't understand the amount of power a nuclear plant produces, especially when they compare it to wind turbines or photovoltaic panels. The construction of the entire French fleet of reactors was done for 100 billion current euros, and you can clearly see the effects in terms of CO2 (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/carbon-co2-emissions https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/carbon-co2-..., starting in 1980). If you consider the changes in safety thresholds, rebuilding it anew is in the order of 300 billion euros. 300 billion euros is the amount Germany spent between 1996 and 2014 to build renewable capacity, and yet their emissions of CO2 barely dropped (https://www.statista.com/statistics/449701/co2-emissions-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/449701/co2-emissions-ger...). A wind turbine or a solar panel is cute if you're talking about powering your own home (even though you'll need more than one) but if we're talking about an entire country with its industry, it's far from being a viable solution. It's always been a problem of scale.

_ph_ 7y ago

But the choice how many new reactors are getting built happens for a reason: in France it is clearly the price, not political resistance. If a nation like France, which runs to 75% on nuclear, doesn't build new reactors, who else would be doing it? And of course, their currently sole attempt to build a new reactor confirms this: late and way over budget. The new reactor in Flammaville already costs 12 billion, but it isn't operating yet. And that is only the building costs. Do the math what this means for the renewal of the whole fleet of French reactors.

simias 7y ago
It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy though. As we build fewer reactors we lose economies of scales, we lose sub-contractors, we lose the knowledge to build these reactors efficiently and without incurring huge financial penalties due to delays and sub-standard deliveries by contractors. This in turn is used to justify building fewer reactors which creates this feedback loop. You can always expect the first type of a new reactor (like this EPR design we've been working on) is going to face challenges, missed deadlines and cost inflation. If in the long run you plan to build a hundred of those it doesn't matter as much as if you only have 4-ish reactors in the pipeline.
- _ph_ 7y ago
  Right. But what are the realistic prospects of the next EPR designs getting considerably cheaper? I am very excited about any new design which has a good chance to be cheaper, but so far the track record hasn't been very good. And of course, we haven't talked about the nuclear waste.
  - pfdietz 7y ago
    The prospects are poor. Cost improvement comes from iteration and learning, and demand for new reactors is low. Even when they are built, the time span is so long that learning is balanced by forgetting.
- cycomanic 7y ago
  You will never get economies of scale with nuclear. There is just not enough of them being build and wouldn't be even if we'd go full nuclear. You need to build to local conditions etc.. Also for those of you who say it's a problem of too much regulation. That's a hilarious proposition: yes sure let's remove regulatory control over technology which could yield large areas of densely inhabited aras no go zones for 100s of years (even if it's 10s it would be unacceptable). It's not like it has been shown over and over again that if you remove regulatory control companies will start taking shortcuts to maximize profits
  - simias 7y ago
    There might not be huge economies of scale but there seems to be a baseline under which we basically lose our capacity to build more power plants. At this point we have additional delays and costs (and loss of trust) because of manufacturing errors. That seems to be a real problem for Areva nowadays.
rakoo 7y ago
The administration of this new reactor's construction was a farce from the beginning: they expected to be able to build this reactor in half the time and half the price it took when France was building 10 reactors in parallel, ie when it still had experience. There is no doubt that the estimation was not just optimistic, but unrealistic (not my word, the word of the rapport on the overblown budget of this reactor) That said, it's still going to be a good amount. The danger that too many people do is that they don't understand the amount of power a nuclear plant produces, especially when they compare it to wind turbines or photovoltaic panels. The construction of the entire French fleet of reactors was done for 100 billion current euros, and you can clearly see the effects in terms of CO2 (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/carbon-co2-emissions https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/carbon-co2-..., starting in 1980). If you consider the changes in safety thresholds, rebuilding it anew is in the order of 300 billion euros. 300 billion euros is the amount Germany spent between 1996 and 2014 to build renewable capacity, and yet their emissions of CO2 barely dropped (https://www.statista.com/statistics/449701/co2-emissions-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/449701/co2-emissions-ger...). A wind turbine or a solar panel is cute if you're talking about powering your own home (even though you'll need more than one) but if we're talking about an entire country with its industry, it's far from being a viable solution. It's always been a problem of scale.