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Also worth noting he claimed they will do first fly of Falcon 9 in 2007, but happened in 2010. Same with Model3 production rates etc. Also worth noting that oth

Also worth noting he claimed they will do first fly of Falcon 9 in 2007, but happened in 2010. Same with Model3 production rates etc. Also worth noting that others just don't provide any time frames in fear of failing those. Musk is just more open with plans and often too optimistic, but they still have most advanced self driving capabilities that are actually mass selling now.

JoshTko 7y ago
Another way to look at it is Musk has been right about engineering/manufacturing goals but has consistently missed on AI goals.
ztjio 7y ago
He also fully and openly admits his timing is often wrong. Specifically for this exact target actually, during the big investor meeting for it, he said he is sure they'll be able to do this but the time estimate could be off.
- lolc 7y ago
  Because lying to investors can get you in trouble.
joshuamorton 7y ago
> still have most advanced self driving capabilities that are actually mass selling now. But they don't have autonomy. They have driver assist. And this bad marketing gets people killed.
- aquadrop 7y ago
  I didn't say they have. But autonomy doesn't mean immunity from fatalities as well. Their cars as it is already lower overall fatality rate.
  - MiroF 7y ago
    But they don't have autonomy. Maybe they lower fatality rate but they are not anywhere near Waymo (or Cruise for that matter) if you look at the metrics.
    - aquadrop 7y ago
      It's weird that I have to point out second time I _didn't say they have autonomy_. And what's wrong with lowering fatality rate whatever your competitors are doing? Also, I'm anxious to see Waymo released, but current reality is what it is, Waymo is still in testing.
      - joshuamorton 7y ago
        > And what's wrong with lowering fatality rate whatever your competitors are doing? It's not actually clear that Tesla lowers the fatality rate. Tesla's driver assist features only work on highways, and highway miles are some of the safest. But the data you get compares assisted teslas on highways to average drivers on all roads. And it's not clear that Tesla is categorically better than competitor's driver assist technology (https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-its-four-times-safer-than-the-us-average/ https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-i...). So nothing you've claimed is strongly supported by evidence, and given that these are safety claims that you're parroting from tesla, I'm going to reiterate: Tesla's claims of improved safety and marketing are dangerous since they aren't true. > It's weird that I have to point out second time I _didn't say they have autonomy_. Right, but Tesla does, they call their driver assist "Autopilot".
        zlsa 7y ago
        Autopilot != autonomy in cars or in planes.
        joshuamorton 7y ago
        I'm not sure what you're getting at. In planes (and especially in planes in pop culture), autopilot does allow flight without keeping your hands on the wheel and eyes on the road, so to speak.
kire2345 7y ago
I am pretty sure Musk runs on Mars time. One year on earth are 1,9 years on Mars ;)
DanCarvajal 7y ago
> Musk is just more open with plans and often too optimistic, Or call it what it is, lying. He habitually lies about timelines. > still have most advanced self driving capabilities that are actually mass selling now. Easy to be the most advanced if you're the only one "selling".
- omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
  I wouldn't go so far as to call it lying. Unless you believe anyone who makes an inaccurate forward looking statement is lying, in which case I would say the majority of people lie the majority of the time when making forward looking statements.
  - DanCarvajal 7y ago
    It's a lie because he knows he can't reasonably achieve anything he's promising on any of the stated timelines. It's Theranos but with cars.
    - omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
      It's possible. Do you have any specific examples? My experience with forward looking statements has been that people interpret something with many caveats as promises with no caveats.
- aquadrop 7y ago
  It's not lying if he believes what he says. Do you have proofs that he deliberately does it? > Easy to be the most advanced if you're the only one "selling". I don't understand what you mean with quotes.
  - DanCarvajal 7y ago
    The constant pattern of over promising and at most under delivering indicates shenanigans. Telsa's FSD package is a scam that will never be delivered. It's not a sale because there's no service delivered, it's a lie meant to trick people and investors out of their money.
brianwawok 7y ago
If you are noting deadlines, how about ones else beat? Model Y was 6 months early.
- aquadrop 7y ago
  That's cool. My point was that Musk is not afraid to say optimistic time frames based on current expectations, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. I prefer it much more than the usual way corporations work - play safe and don't promise anything.
Fricken 7y ago
It's also worth noting that rockets have been done before.
- aquadrop 7y ago
  Not with landing of the booster, which is the whole point of Falcon 9.
grecy 7y ago
They released the Model Y ahead of schedule.

JoshTko 7y ago

Another way to look at it is Musk has been right about engineering/manufacturing goals but has consistently missed on AI goals.

ztjio 7y ago

He also fully and openly admits his timing is often wrong. Specifically for this exact target actually, during the big investor meeting for it, he said he is sure they'll be able to do this but the time estimate could be off.

lolc 7y ago
Because lying to investors can get you in trouble.

joshuamorton 7y ago

> still have most advanced self driving capabilities that are actually mass selling now. But they don't have autonomy. They have driver assist. And this bad marketing gets people killed.

aquadrop 7y ago
I didn't say they have. But autonomy doesn't mean immunity from fatalities as well. Their cars as it is already lower overall fatality rate.
- MiroF 7y ago
  But they don't have autonomy. Maybe they lower fatality rate but they are not anywhere near Waymo (or Cruise for that matter) if you look at the metrics.
  - aquadrop 7y ago
    It's weird that I have to point out second time I _didn't say they have autonomy_. And what's wrong with lowering fatality rate whatever your competitors are doing? Also, I'm anxious to see Waymo released, but current reality is what it is, Waymo is still in testing.
    - joshuamorton 7y ago
      > And what's wrong with lowering fatality rate whatever your competitors are doing? It's not actually clear that Tesla lowers the fatality rate. Tesla's driver assist features only work on highways, and highway miles are some of the safest. But the data you get compares assisted teslas on highways to average drivers on all roads. And it's not clear that Tesla is categorically better than competitor's driver assist technology (https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-its-four-times-safer-than-the-us-average/ https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-i...). So nothing you've claimed is strongly supported by evidence, and given that these are safety claims that you're parroting from tesla, I'm going to reiterate: Tesla's claims of improved safety and marketing are dangerous since they aren't true. > It's weird that I have to point out second time I _didn't say they have autonomy_. Right, but Tesla does, they call their driver assist "Autopilot".
      - zlsa 7y ago
        Autopilot != autonomy in cars or in planes.
        joshuamorton 7y ago
        I'm not sure what you're getting at. In planes (and especially in planes in pop culture), autopilot does allow flight without keeping your hands on the wheel and eyes on the road, so to speak.

kire2345 7y ago

I am pretty sure Musk runs on Mars time. One year on earth are 1,9 years on Mars ;)

DanCarvajal 7y ago

> Musk is just more open with plans and often too optimistic, Or call it what it is, lying. He habitually lies about timelines. > still have most advanced self driving capabilities that are actually mass selling now. Easy to be the most advanced if you're the only one "selling".

omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
I wouldn't go so far as to call it lying. Unless you believe anyone who makes an inaccurate forward looking statement is lying, in which case I would say the majority of people lie the majority of the time when making forward looking statements.
- DanCarvajal 7y ago
  It's a lie because he knows he can't reasonably achieve anything he's promising on any of the stated timelines. It's Theranos but with cars.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
    It's possible. Do you have any specific examples? My experience with forward looking statements has been that people interpret something with many caveats as promises with no caveats.
aquadrop 7y ago
It's not lying if he believes what he says. Do you have proofs that he deliberately does it? > Easy to be the most advanced if you're the only one "selling". I don't understand what you mean with quotes.
- DanCarvajal 7y ago
  The constant pattern of over promising and at most under delivering indicates shenanigans. Telsa's FSD package is a scam that will never be delivered. It's not a sale because there's no service delivered, it's a lie meant to trick people and investors out of their money.

brianwawok 7y ago

If you are noting deadlines, how about ones else beat? Model Y was 6 months early.

aquadrop 7y ago
That's cool. My point was that Musk is not afraid to say optimistic time frames based on current expectations, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. I prefer it much more than the usual way corporations work - play safe and don't promise anything.

Fricken 7y ago

It's also worth noting that rockets have been done before.

aquadrop 7y ago
Not with landing of the booster, which is the whole point of Falcon 9.

grecy 7y ago

They released the Model Y ahead of schedule.