3 ms·
Hm, you're making sense otherwise but I just don't see where I assumed P(Global Epidemic starts in Wuhan) = 1 -- could you elaborate on that?
by dlubarov 7y ago
Hm, you're making sense otherwise but I just don't see where I assumed P(Global Epidemic starts in Wuhan) = 1 -- could you elaborate on that?
- roenxi 7y agoProbably not; no. The best I can come up with is that probability is very sensitive to what you assume is happening to generate results. In this case, you're assuming that the WIV in particular is important which I suspect links the pandemic implicitly to Wuhan. That isn't a math error, but it is not going to give you a useful result. This isn't an error of logic so much as an error in scenario construction - it is ignoring possibility that the virus appeared near a random BSL rated facility, which is probably very high since a new virus would likely be detected first in dense urban centers where that sort of infrastructure tends to be. If the virus is likely to appear near a BSL facility, then the fact it appeared near a specific BSL facility shouldn't be leading you to the sort of answer you got.