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Author here. The Coronavirus impact on the economy is a surprise for me. Hence I view it as a Black Swan. Taleb calls it a White Swan. Maybe, he foresees it. Th
by dnprock 6y ago
Author here. The Coronavirus impact on the economy is a surprise for me. Hence I view it as a Black Swan. Taleb calls it a White Swan. Maybe, he foresees it. The definition depends on the observer.
- aaron695 6y agoTaleb is an idiot. Black Swan has no real meaning. But if Black Swan did have a meaning it's not things that are a surprise. The fact people call the Coronavirus a Black Swan shows how useless the idea of a Black Swan is. But then it has no meaning, so maybe that's the way the language has moved and you are right. Now Black Swan are when things we don't predict happen. Like a server going down or a pandemic.
- badpiece 6y agoI think you need to reconsider who the idiot is
- elipsey 6y agoThanks, I see what you mean. It's been a few years since I read that, and I'm certainly not well positioned to speak for, or about, the book. Pardon me for becoming bogged down in details -- I take it that the post is about deflation risk, not what was or wasn't predicted about _this_ pandemic. "We are heading into a deflationary crisis" is a pretty compelling prediction, and I have now set off to try to work out which leading indicators of this would be informative.