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I don't see any evidence to suggest the virus was engineered or released deliberately. why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated par

I don't see any evidence to suggest the virus was engineered or released deliberately. why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? doesn't make sense. the lab in wuhan is not just any virology lab though; it's one of only two biosafety level 4 labs in all of china and samples of similar coronaviruses are held and studied there. it may very well be a coincidence; improbable things happen all the time in a world of ~8 billion people. it would be a pretty big one though.

meowface 7y ago
There are still lots of other confounding variables there that you need to factor into the probability. Maybe I shouldn't say overwhelmingly likely for all of those possibilities - a lab escape isn't that unlikely. But there's no evidence of that. If it's true, we indeed may never discover any evidence, but evidence is still required to actually make the claim. As it is now, it's only worthy of speculation. edit: I edited my original post to make my beliefs more clear.
endtime 7y ago
So I'm definitely not advocating the lab theory overall, and even if it did come from a lab it could have escaped rather than been deliberately released...but to answer your question, China does/did have problems with A) an aging population, B) a male heavy population, and C) Hong Kong streets full of protesters. This virus "helps" with all of those.
- sv9 7y ago
  Bioweapons are crappy precisely because of what's happening now. A good weapon discriminates, and lets you kill exactly who you want. By that measure, a virus is about as hamfisted as you can get. Besides, why unleash a pandemic on the whole world when you can just do what China normally does and use conventional military power instead? It's cheaper and easier to get some men in boots with guns to stop a protest than it is to unleash a worldwide pandemic that might last for years or longer.
  - adamiscool8 7y ago
    That solves for the protest problem, not for the demographic crunch or China's desperate need to deleverage its economic system. [0] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/chinas-corporate-debt-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economy-moodys.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/chinas-corporate-debt-is-big...
  - endtime 7y ago
    This virus disproportionately impacts the elderly, and males. That was the whole point of my comment.
deleted 7y ago
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Razengan 7y ago
> why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? doesn't make sense. Historically, China has not been above harming their own citizens. There is probably still a substantial "Greater Good" philosophy there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests
- chillacy 7y ago
  I can understand the logic to shutting down pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen if you're a party member and your political system is at stake. This type of thing (sadly) happens all around the world. But I don't see what was to be gained. Take in mind there are a not insignificant number of people who believe that the US planned 9/11 and Pearl Harbor as well. It just seems like in all these cases (9/11, Pearl Harbor, Coronavirus) to not be in the country's interests at all.
  - kds3 7y ago
    9/11 is not a good example here. It allowed US to pass important PRISM-like PATRIOT acts without much opposition from US citizens, just in time for the rise of the Internet. It also provided a great narrative to start Iraq war and forced them to accept USD for their oil, strengthening the economy. So it clearly was in both government and (some) citizens interest for 9/11 to happen. It's not easy to find any Coronavirus-related political narratives for China or any other country yet, because nothing has changed in China politics, but we will wait and see.
    - codekilla 7y ago
      Don’t forget the anthrax used here either a month after 911.
  - burfog 7y ago
    Not that I think the lab escape was deliberate, but: shutting down pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong has been a result of the virus. I don't really think the leaders would take that risk, considering all the unpredictable side effects, but there certainly was something gained.
goatinaboat 7y ago
why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? doesn't make sense. Why would you starve tens of millions of people just to test some crackpot theories of agriculture? Doesn’t make sense
drevil-v2 7y ago
> why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? Purely as a thought experiment, China's death rate and infection rate seems orders of magnitude less per capita compared to Western countries so maybe it is the perfect bioweapon for the task, minimal self casualties enough for deniability but the other side really takes a beating.. Again this is just a thought experiment and not a serious speculation :)

meowface 7y ago

There are still lots of other confounding variables there that you need to factor into the probability. Maybe I shouldn't say overwhelmingly likely for all of those possibilities - a lab escape isn't that unlikely. But there's no evidence of that. If it's true, we indeed may never discover any evidence, but evidence is still required to actually make the claim. As it is now, it's only worthy of speculation. edit: I edited my original post to make my beliefs more clear.

endtime 7y ago

So I'm definitely not advocating the lab theory overall, and even if it did come from a lab it could have escaped rather than been deliberately released...but to answer your question, China does/did have problems with A) an aging population, B) a male heavy population, and C) Hong Kong streets full of protesters. This virus "helps" with all of those.

sv9 7y ago
Bioweapons are crappy precisely because of what's happening now. A good weapon discriminates, and lets you kill exactly who you want. By that measure, a virus is about as hamfisted as you can get. Besides, why unleash a pandemic on the whole world when you can just do what China normally does and use conventional military power instead? It's cheaper and easier to get some men in boots with guns to stop a protest than it is to unleash a worldwide pandemic that might last for years or longer.
- adamiscool8 7y ago
  That solves for the protest problem, not for the demographic crunch or China's desperate need to deleverage its economic system. [0] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/chinas-corporate-debt-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economy-moodys.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/chinas-corporate-debt-is-big...
- endtime 7y ago
  This virus disproportionately impacts the elderly, and males. That was the whole point of my comment.

deleted 7y ago

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Razengan 7y ago

> why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? doesn't make sense. Historically, China has not been above harming their own citizens. There is probably still a substantial "Greater Good" philosophy there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests

chillacy 7y ago
I can understand the logic to shutting down pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen if you're a party member and your political system is at stake. This type of thing (sadly) happens all around the world. But I don't see what was to be gained. Take in mind there are a not insignificant number of people who believe that the US planned 9/11 and Pearl Harbor as well. It just seems like in all these cases (9/11, Pearl Harbor, Coronavirus) to not be in the country's interests at all.
- kds3 7y ago
  9/11 is not a good example here. It allowed US to pass important PRISM-like PATRIOT acts without much opposition from US citizens, just in time for the rise of the Internet. It also provided a great narrative to start Iraq war and forced them to accept USD for their oil, strengthening the economy. So it clearly was in both government and (some) citizens interest for 9/11 to happen. It's not easy to find any Coronavirus-related political narratives for China or any other country yet, because nothing has changed in China politics, but we will wait and see.
  - codekilla 7y ago
    Don’t forget the anthrax used here either a month after 911.
- burfog 7y ago
  Not that I think the lab escape was deliberate, but: shutting down pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong has been a result of the virus. I don't really think the leaders would take that risk, considering all the unpredictable side effects, but there certainly was something gained.

goatinaboat 7y ago

why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? doesn't make sense. Why would you starve tens of millions of people just to test some crackpot theories of agriculture? Doesn’t make sense

drevil-v2 7y ago

> why would you deliberately release a bioweapon in a densely populated part of your own country? Purely as a thought experiment, China's death rate and infection rate seems orders of magnitude less per capita compared to Western countries so maybe it is the perfect bioweapon for the task, minimal self casualties enough for deniability but the other side really takes a beating.. Again this is just a thought experiment and not a serious speculation :)