4 ms·
> I think it is overwhelmingly likely Why are you so sure it is overwhelmingly likely? > I think it's probably just a coincidence that there's a virology lab
by StandardFuture 6y ago
> I think it is overwhelmingly likely
Why are you so sure it is overwhelmingly likely?
> I think it's probably just a coincidence that there's a virology lab there
Only because you believe it to be purely coincidental of a virology lab being next to the outbreak source location?
I am entirely up for accepting this viewpoint. But, the lack of evidence to suggest an actual source location coupled with the (CCP sourced and pushed narrative of) "overwhelming evidence" that raw bat consumption at the market started it leads me to lean towards a more logical conclusion of a simple lab escape.
Am I being illogical in thinking that a pathogen escape from a virology lab (built in 2017, btw) in the same locale is more likely than a random zoonotic transfer of raw bat consumption (a practice likely being done at the same market for a considerable more amount of time)?
EDIT: change "less likely" to "more likely"
- CreRecombinase 6y agoI don't know about illogical, but I think your intuition that zoonotic transfer is unlikely because it hasn't happened in the recent past is not a good one.
- StandardFuture 6y agoBut here is the crux of the matter. Is it possible that zoonotic transfer through consumption of bats caused this? Yes. Is it possible that zoonotic transfer via handling of bats inside the virology lab caused this? Yes. I am not sure why it is so necessary to be so adamant about vigorously dismissing the latter as a possibility.
- andromeduck 6y agoMost bat consumption in China happens in the South, along with the population in general. The odds of a zoonotic event occuring in Wuhan of all places and within a block of one of the few labs known to have been activity hunting for a virus just like this is too much of a coincidence.