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Every HN thread on economics has a bunch of comments like these that are earnestly misinformed about economics. When commenting on something outside of your whe
by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Every HN thread on economics has a bunch of comments like these that are earnestly misinformed about economics. When commenting on something outside of your wheelhouse, please recall Socrates from the Apology: "I observed that even the good artisans fell into the same error as the poets; because they were good workmen they thought that they also knew all sorts of high matters, and this defect in them overshadowed their wisdom."
I'll point out just two deficiencies in these threads and leave the rest to you. If P/E ratios in the US are "too high," then people would invest their money elsewhere for better return, right? Maybe international stocks or bonds or whatever. And why don't they, if they have every incentive to seek a better return? Because there are no better returns, even in countries with higher interest rates. So how could P/E ratios be too high? The more likely explanation is that this is the "new normal" - savings outpaces investment opportunities for many reasons (aging populations, growth in countries with stronger saving cultures, etc.), which pushes up the premium on assets.
Second, on the subject of interest rates and QE, a little international perspective would make you reconsider the effect on the overall economy. All other developed economies have lower interest rates, more QE, and slower growth than the US. Look at Europe, look at Japan. The issues of "why are asset prices rising" and "why is inflation low" are much larger than just US policy. We are talking global trade and demographic factors that influence these things. The current stance of fiscal and monetary policy is the symptom, not the cause. And in fact the US has been significantly more successful than our counterparts on that topic, as a fast and strong response in 2008 pre-empted the kind of drawn out economic malaise seen in Europe, where the ECB waited years before easing policy to the degree that we had. Now Europe has lower rates, more QE, lower inflation, a worse labor market, and less growth than the US. And that's before factoring in the coronavirus crisis. Policy may have increased inequality in some ways, but if you're going to make that claim you have to also answer the corresponding counter-factual: potentially the poor would have been even worse off (relative to the rich) if there were no policy interventions and the labor market collapsed. There have been some papers on the topic, and it is not at all obvious that inequality is worse now than it would have been if there was less policy intervention.
- jariel 6y ago"a bunch of comments like these that are earnestly misinformed about economics. " " savings outpaces investment opportunities for many reasons (aging populations, growth in countries with stronger saving cultures, etc.), which pushes up the premium on assets." The savings rate is not correlated with stock prices. [1] "All other developed economies have lower interest rates, more QE, and slower growth than the US. " No, they have similar rates per capita. US grows because it brings in more bodies [2]. Moving warm bodies from A->B implying a loss somewhere and again somewhere else isn't exactly growth. (I mean - yes, they probably can be more productive in America). But this is not an economic marvel. The OPs statements concerning inflation of financial assets is very, very reasonable economics. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/246234/personal-savings-rate-in-the-united-states/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/246234/personal-savings-... [2] All other developed economies have lower interest rates, more QE, and slower growth than the US.
- AngrySkillzz 6y agoThe argument is not that the US savings rate pushes up the value of financial assets in the US, I'm talking about globally (i.e. the global savings glut hypothesis). Countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Germany have significant capital account surpluses which continue to get invested in assets in the US, particularly the stock market.
- jariel 6y agoThis is a fair point. But the Fed has been playing funny money during all this time, backing dollars with garbage real-estate, so I don't think it's fair to say this is just a regular 'new normal' as in asset prices were marked properly. 'New Funny Money Normal' - maybe, but the massive Fed balance sheet first enables those with assets, not those who don't i.e. 'the rich'.
- redis_mlc 6y agoAngrySkillzz: you're trying to sound informed, but you're not. Economics is known as the "dismal science" for a reason, and your ECON101 rehash doesn't help anybody. Stocks have a high PE today because interest rates have been low since 2008, so investors have no choice but to buy real estate or stocks. Most European countries don't have functioning economies, so buying on Italian or Spanish exchanges is pure speculation.