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Yeah, local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March, as does the number of cases compl

by makomk 7y ago

Yeah, local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March, as does the number of cases completely unlinked to any previous travel or known case. That last one is particularly worrying because it's likely to be a very laggy indicator of a much bigger pool of undetected cases - because Singapore traces contacts backwards aggressively, the disease has to have been circulating undetected for quite a while beforehand in order to cause this, and since unlinked cases are much harder to detect they're probably not finding most of them. I don't think this is just restricted to foreign worker dorms either, though those are a big problem right now; this seems to go back well before they found all those case in dorms.

culturestate 7y ago
> local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March MOH provided an annex[1] breaking down new cases by transmission type in the latest update. The data shows that local cases had been increasing, but they're in a slow decline - for now - and most of the new infections are in or related to dorms. 1. https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/press-releases/annex-a---infection-trends-broken-by-different-transmission-types-(final).pdf https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/pre...
- makomk 7y ago
  That chart does not look reassuring. The infections in or related to dorms only showed up at the start of April, presumably in part because they started mass-testing those workers around then. The number of non-imported cases has been going up exponentially for much longer than that. Also, they're likely to have a much higher detection rate for those workers than everyone else right now given that's where testing attention is focused, so they probably make up a much lower proportion of actual infections than the figures suggest.

by makomk 7y ago

culturestate 7y ago

> local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March MOH provided an annex[1] breaking down new cases by transmission type in the latest update. The data shows that local cases had been increasing, but they're in a slow decline - for now - and most of the new infections are in or related to dorms. 1. https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/press-releases/annex-a---infection-trends-broken-by-different-transmission-types-(final).pdf https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/pre...

makomk 7y ago
That chart does not look reassuring. The infections in or related to dorms only showed up at the start of April, presumably in part because they started mass-testing those workers around then. The number of non-imported cases has been going up exponentially for much longer than that. Also, they're likely to have a much higher detection rate for those workers than everyone else right now given that's where testing attention is focused, so they probably make up a much lower proportion of actual infections than the figures suggest.