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I find it hilarious that the caption under the right side image reads: “You could see 50 to 100 sizable defaults,” Meredith Whitney, a prominent doomsayer, said

I find it hilarious that the caption under the right side image reads: “You could see 50 to 100 sizable defaults,” Meredith Whitney, a prominent doomsayer, said on “60 Minutes.” How does one rise through the ranks of the doomsaying profession?

_delirium 16y ago
Here's an article from '08 investigating that question: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSApdA59SFok&refer=columnist_lewis http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a...
DanielBMarkham 16y ago
The doomsaying profession isn't what it used to be. Tragic hard times are coming, and by the end of the decade most doomsayers will be covered in puss begging for pennies down by the local Wal-Mart. If they're lucky. Seriously, though, this article had a lot of random details strewn about, but not enough thread to connect them. Can cites and states declare bankruptcy? Yes. No. Well kinda, but it doesn't help. Are structural issues like union contracts for future payments in terms of benefits a problem? Yes, but not really: the author just makes a passing reference to "political will" as being a problem, whatever that means. All I got from the article was the unsaid conclusion that governments can simply not pay their debts without defaulting. I wonder if this will be a viable strategy?
- jbooth 16y ago
  At the municipal level, things have been stretched since the boom days in 2004, 2005. Most of them have laws that make it very hard to raise taxes, a pay structure that historically has slanted towards better benefits in exchange for lower pay, and a 10-year run of health insurance cost increases at 10-15% a year. So in many places, they've already cut to the bone, (and did so during the "boom years", to boot). Basically the best thing we can do for municipalities and states is to bend that healthcare cost curve. Unless we do, it's going to be lay people off, raise taxes or both every single year.

_delirium 16y ago

Here's an article from '08 investigating that question: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSApdA59SFok&refer=columnist_lewis http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a...

DanielBMarkham 16y ago

The doomsaying profession isn't what it used to be. Tragic hard times are coming, and by the end of the decade most doomsayers will be covered in puss begging for pennies down by the local Wal-Mart. If they're lucky. Seriously, though, this article had a lot of random details strewn about, but not enough thread to connect them. Can cites and states declare bankruptcy? Yes. No. Well kinda, but it doesn't help. Are structural issues like union contracts for future payments in terms of benefits a problem? Yes, but not really: the author just makes a passing reference to "political will" as being a problem, whatever that means. All I got from the article was the unsaid conclusion that governments can simply not pay their debts without defaulting. I wonder if this will be a viable strategy?

jbooth 16y ago
At the municipal level, things have been stretched since the boom days in 2004, 2005. Most of them have laws that make it very hard to raise taxes, a pay structure that historically has slanted towards better benefits in exchange for lower pay, and a 10-year run of health insurance cost increases at 10-15% a year. So in many places, they've already cut to the bone, (and did so during the "boom years", to boot). Basically the best thing we can do for municipalities and states is to bend that healthcare cost curve. Unless we do, it's going to be lay people off, raise taxes or both every single year.