4 ms·

A possible solution to Covid-19, part 2: how would it work in practice

17 points by jinjin2 7y ago

giardini 7y ago
Outstanding article suggests that we can quickly: 1) Find a non-pathogenic viral strain out in the wild, 2) make a vaccine from it and 3) give it to everyone. But please read in full for the details: the author is a PhD in molecular microbiology, used to be a tenured academic (professor) and now works in the biotech sector. He has done a service to us all by posting this article and trying to get this idea out there. Anyone doing this?
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Not that I can find. Getting in contact with the experts in this area is proving impossible. They seem to have hermetically sealed themselves off from the rest of the world and there is now no way to get through to them with anything new.
dang 7y ago
Related previous threads: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22830320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22830320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810639 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810639
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Dan I have written you directly, but I am wondering if you could poke Sam for me to have him take a look at the email I sent him. He ask for proposals and I think if he takes the time to read what I have written he might find it at least interesting.
redis_mlc 7y ago
Or you could just let it run it's course, like every other flu in human history. 98% of infected people recover at home.
- DanBC 7y ago
  Covid-19 isn't flu. It's a different type of virus, and it has different effects. > 98% of infected people recover at home. Do you have a reliable source?
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Yes. It is the 2% that don’t recover that we are worried about. Even if you survive COVID-19, from the personal reports I have read from survivors this is not a disease you ever want to catch.
danieltillett 7y ago
This is my follow up post which I hope answers how we might go about turning this into something practical. If you have any more questions I am happy to answer them.
- nkurz 7y ago
  Daniel, did you see this article: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1 I haven't read it, but the abstract suggests that a milder strain with a large deletion might have already been found.
  - danieltillett 7y ago
    Yes I have and I reference it in my first post. The problem is this deletion strain was isolated from patients in hospital so it is still to dangerous to use. It does prove that there are deletion strains out in the world and if there is one there is likely to be more.
    - nkurz 7y ago
      Sorry, in my skimming I missed that it was the same article. I usually hesitate to cross-link, but in this case you might want to read the discussion starting here: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/10/coronalinks-4-10-second-derivative/#comment-878301 https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/10/coronalinks-4-10-secon... It's a thread that discusses your proposal and variolation more generally. It's mostly negative, suggesting that waiting for a proper vaccine is the much better approach. I don't think you'd necessarily benefit from replying there yourself, but it does show how people are reacting to what they think you are proposing. It's possible that looking at their reactions might help you clarify your message. Or feel free to reply if you think it would be helpful.
      - danieltillett 7y ago
        The discussion there mostly replicates what was discussed here on HN a few days ago. There were some pretty good rejoinders to the negative posts that show some people do understand what I am proposing. Interesting I haven’t had a single negative response to my idea which worries me a little. I have received plenty of negative responses to ideas I haven’t proposed, but none that actually address what I am proposing. The closest I have got is it might not work, but I haven’t ever suggested that it is certain to work. There is plenty of risk of failure, but the value of success is so high that I think it is worth trying. Now if anyone knows how to solve the seemingly impossible task of getting experts in the area to look at this please get in contact with me - they might as well have all moved to Antarctica and cut all the satellite links.

17 points by jinjin2 7y ago

Outstanding article suggests that we can quickly: 1) Find a non-pathogenic viral strain out in the wild, 2) make a vaccine from it and 3) give it to everyone. But please read in full for the details: the author is a PhD in molecular microbiology, used to be a tenured academic (professor) and now works in the biotech sector. He has done a service to us all by posting this article and trying to get this idea out there. Anyone doing this?

danieltillett 7y ago
Not that I can find. Getting in contact with the experts in this area is proving impossible. They seem to have hermetically sealed themselves off from the rest of the world and there is now no way to get through to them with anything new.

dang 7y ago

Related previous threads: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22830320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22830320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810639 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810639

danieltillett 7y ago
Dan I have written you directly, but I am wondering if you could poke Sam for me to have him take a look at the email I sent him. He ask for proposals and I think if he takes the time to read what I have written he might find it at least interesting.

redis_mlc 7y ago

Or you could just let it run it's course, like every other flu in human history. 98% of infected people recover at home.

DanBC 7y ago
Covid-19 isn't flu. It's a different type of virus, and it has different effects. > 98% of infected people recover at home. Do you have a reliable source?
danieltillett 7y ago
Yes. It is the 2% that don’t recover that we are worried about. Even if you survive COVID-19, from the personal reports I have read from survivors this is not a disease you ever want to catch.

danieltillett 7y ago

This is my follow up post which I hope answers how we might go about turning this into something practical. If you have any more questions I am happy to answer them.

nkurz 7y ago
Daniel, did you see this article: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1 I haven't read it, but the abstract suggests that a milder strain with a large deletion might have already been found.
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Yes I have and I reference it in my first post. The problem is this deletion strain was isolated from patients in hospital so it is still to dangerous to use. It does prove that there are deletion strains out in the world and if there is one there is likely to be more.
  - nkurz 7y ago
    Sorry, in my skimming I missed that it was the same article. I usually hesitate to cross-link, but in this case you might want to read the discussion starting here: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/10/coronalinks-4-10-second-derivative/#comment-878301 https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/10/coronalinks-4-10-secon... It's a thread that discusses your proposal and variolation more generally. It's mostly negative, suggesting that waiting for a proper vaccine is the much better approach. I don't think you'd necessarily benefit from replying there yourself, but it does show how people are reacting to what they think you are proposing. It's possible that looking at their reactions might help you clarify your message. Or feel free to reply if you think it would be helpful.
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      The discussion there mostly replicates what was discussed here on HN a few days ago. There were some pretty good rejoinders to the negative posts that show some people do understand what I am proposing. Interesting I haven’t had a single negative response to my idea which worries me a little. I have received plenty of negative responses to ideas I haven’t proposed, but none that actually address what I am proposing. The closest I have got is it might not work, but I haven’t ever suggested that it is certain to work. There is plenty of risk of failure, but the value of success is so high that I think it is worth trying. Now if anyone knows how to solve the seemingly impossible task of getting experts in the area to look at this please get in contact with me - they might as well have all moved to Antarctica and cut all the satellite links.