4 ms·

Cases in both Singapore and Hong Kong are on the rise, so it's a bad example of the containment, unlike South Korea one.

by xvilka 7y ago

culturestate 7y ago
Singapore cases are rising, but primarily within a specific sector of the community (foreign worker dorms, which were always a concern as they're very communal spaces). We've been in a de facto lockdown for a week now, so the next few days will be telling. Hong Kong, for its part, reported only 4 new cases on Sunday and has been testing aggressively - I think they're around 15,000 tests per million people now.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Yeah but as soon as they lift their draconian measures they are going to get hit with it. This virus is too infectious to contain or control. Meanwhile, economic suicide is going to bring poverty and ruin to billions of people if this carries on.
makomk 7y ago
Yeah, local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March, as does the number of cases completely unlinked to any previous travel or known case. That last one is particularly worrying because it's likely to be a very laggy indicator of a much bigger pool of undetected cases - because Singapore traces contacts backwards aggressively, the disease has to have been circulating undetected for quite a while beforehand in order to cause this, and since unlinked cases are much harder to detect they're probably not finding most of them. I don't think this is just restricted to foreign worker dorms either, though those are a big problem right now; this seems to go back well before they found all those case in dorms.
- culturestate 7y ago
  > local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March MOH provided an annex[1] breaking down new cases by transmission type in the latest update. The data shows that local cases had been increasing, but they're in a slow decline - for now - and most of the new infections are in or related to dorms. 1. https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/press-releases/annex-a---infection-trends-broken-by-different-transmission-types-(final).pdf https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/pre...
  - makomk 7y ago
    That chart does not look reassuring. The infections in or related to dorms only showed up at the start of April, presumably in part because they started mass-testing those workers around then. The number of non-imported cases has been going up exponentially for much longer than that. Also, they're likely to have a much higher detection rate for those workers than everyone else right now given that's where testing attention is focused, so they probably make up a much lower proportion of actual infections than the figures suggest.

Cases in both Singapore and Hong Kong are on the rise, so it's a bad example of the containment, unlike South Korea one.

by xvilka 7y ago

Cases in both Singapore and Hong Kong are on the rise, so it's a bad example of the containment, unlike South Korea one.

culturestate 7y ago

Singapore cases are rising, but primarily within a specific sector of the community (foreign worker dorms, which were always a concern as they're very communal spaces). We've been in a de facto lockdown for a week now, so the next few days will be telling. Hong Kong, for its part, reported only 4 new cases on Sunday and has been testing aggressively - I think they're around 15,000 tests per million people now.

chrisco255 7y ago
Yeah but as soon as they lift their draconian measures they are going to get hit with it. This virus is too infectious to contain or control. Meanwhile, economic suicide is going to bring poverty and ruin to billions of people if this carries on.

makomk 7y ago

Yeah, local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March, as does the number of cases completely unlinked to any previous travel or known case. That last one is particularly worrying because it's likely to be a very laggy indicator of a much bigger pool of undetected cases - because Singapore traces contacts backwards aggressively, the disease has to have been circulating undetected for quite a while beforehand in order to cause this, and since unlinked cases are much harder to detect they're probably not finding most of them. I don't think this is just restricted to foreign worker dorms either, though those are a big problem right now; this seems to go back well before they found all those case in dorms.

culturestate 7y ago
> local non-imported cases in Singapore look like they've been increasing exponentially since at least the start of March MOH provided an annex[1] breaking down new cases by transmission type in the latest update. The data shows that local cases had been increasing, but they're in a slow decline - for now - and most of the new infections are in or related to dorms. 1. https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/press-releases/annex-a---infection-trends-broken-by-different-transmission-types-(final).pdf https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/pressroom/pre...
- makomk 7y ago
  That chart does not look reassuring. The infections in or related to dorms only showed up at the start of April, presumably in part because they started mass-testing those workers around then. The number of non-imported cases has been going up exponentially for much longer than that. Also, they're likely to have a much higher detection rate for those workers than everyone else right now given that's where testing attention is focused, so they probably make up a much lower proportion of actual infections than the figures suggest.