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US already has 20k deaths and only 500k confirmed infections. Not all of those infections have had an outcome and not all infected have been confirmed so it's h
by easymodex 6y ago
US already has 20k deaths and only 500k confirmed infections. Not all of those infections have had an outcome and not all infected have been confirmed so it's hard to do an exact calculation but based on that data more than a million deaths is very likely. So yeah, it's worth it.
- Zenbit_UX 6y agoNot sure about your math there, a million deaths in the US seems impossible, worst case 100-200k. Did you mean the world? Even that seems a bit high.
- acdha 6y agoWhere’s your source for that worst case? All credible sources are in the 7 figure range until we get a vaccine or reliable drug regimen.
- dboreham 6y agoImpossible? Why? 1% infection fatality rate with 70% population infected would give 2 million.
- jfoster 6y agoPlus you're saying that based on the current data. The fatality rate only worsens as the infection rate goes up and hospitals become even more overwhelmed.
- rootusrootus 6y agoThe reputable estimates for IFR aren't suggesting 1%, thankfully.
- dboreham 6y agoTrue, but no estimate is lower than 0.3%, which is still very high (600,000+ dead in the USA). The next step in walking back the fatality rate of course will be to define an IFR that's "net of people who were probably going to die soon anyways".