The risk here is low. After all, the manager could easily have sniffed the coming recession and hedged against it. All assets do not lose value in a recession

The risk here is low. After all, the manager could easily have sniffed the coming recession and hedged against it. All assets do not lose value in a recession, you know. Knowing only the returns the manager has yielded over several years tells the official very little about how the manager will perform in a recession, in a boom, or in a boring year.