The test rate is next to useless. Death counts are a less unreliable indicator. Current death counts in NYC- over 7,000 using both the health department counts

The test rate is next to useless. Death counts are a less unreliable indicator. Current death counts in NYC- over 7,000 using both the health department counts before Apr 5 plus the FDNY counts, tho even that still has to be an undercount- indicate that at minimum around the time of lockdown (Mar 22) at least 300,000 were "infected"- at a 2% CFR and MTTD of 15 days- but more likely closer to 700,000 or 800,000. That's 3 weeks ago. With known new death counts currently in the mid to high hundreds, that adds tens of thousands of infections 2-3 weeks ago. My take is- we are already today at over 1M infections in NYC. And we have a grim fork ahead- either we see a steep drop in death counts, or we see a steady or gradual decline. A steep drop from lockdown means lockdown works, but also means we still have another few million in susceptible population as things start to open up. If we only see a gradual or steady decline, COVID more quickly becomes the largest cause of death in NYC for 2020, and we know that lockdown doesnt work well enough to keep from progressing through the population, but we also know we have much less of a susceptible population remaining.