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I disagree. If we can push the R0 low enough such that active case numbers decline to be less than a thousand, we can implement aggressive test/trace measures t
by zwaps 7y ago
I disagree. If we can push the R0 low enough such that active case numbers decline to be less than a thousand, we can implement aggressive test/trace measures that would allow us to lift restrictions altogether, hopefully forever. We need an infrastructure to test people rapidly and often, we need an infrastructure to develop rapid containment and quarantines and so forth.
We need to act, as if we'd never get rid of this virus. As if this virus were now a fact of life.
This is the way to go, because developing this capability will be useful for the future as well. If, instead, our hospitals are at the limits and everyone is on full lock down, no such capabilities will be developed. The health care system will just struggle to keep people from dying and we may have the same situation when this or another virus returns.
There are other considerations for this, of course.
First, fewer people will die. Second, it's not clear how immune a population can be to this virus. And even if herd immunity turns out to be viable, having a low R0 puts us into a waiting position where we can let the virus infect young and healthy people if that's a wise decision.
- ygra 7y agoAs far as I'm aware, contact tracing has never really stopped in Germany, despite the lockdown. Since both tracing (via local Gesundheitsämter) and testing (via lots of local labs) is distributed and not centralized, you can still effectively implement contact tracing in places where you're not overwhelmed. And there's lots of such places, despite the growing numbers. Unlike Italy, Spain, or the US, Germany wasn't hit that hard in a single area (except Heinsberg, but that happened to be right in the middle of a gigantic metropolitan area, so there's plenty of infrastructure to deal with that). Cases are spread out all over the country and so is testing and tracing capacity.
- _ph_ 7y agoFully agree. Just one comment: there is a middle ground, where we lift most, but not all restrictions. While we keep a lot of anti-infection measures. For example, most businesses can open, with the distance rules still paid attention too. But we would avoild to have the most critical events, like big parties, trade shows, concerts, football games. And of course, still try to maintain proper hygene, like hand washing and possibly mask wearing. By this we could reduce the risk of infections by a huge amount compared to the pre-lockdown behavior but still have a pretty normal life. If we managed to get the number of infectios people small enough during the lock down, together with active measures like testing, tracking, etc. it might be good enough to keep the infection rate at or below 1.