Death rates will rise and things will get worse, but if we are lucky not dramatically so. In contrast to literally every other large European country, we did a

Death rates will rise and things will get worse, but if we are lucky not dramatically so. In contrast to literally every other large European country, we did a lot of testing (compare for example CDR for France against Germany, we did ten times more tests especially early on). If you run the numbers on tests vs. infections, assuming that death rates are more accurate, you have to conclude that Italy, Spain and France likely have a magnitude more cases than tests would suggest. Initial infections were mostly young people at the carnival events. This helps with the death rate. Furthermore, Germany is more decentralized than any other country in the EU, and has "decent" capabilities spread. We had a good start. Call it luck. However, it'll get worse, especially since people are itching for it to be over. Here in Germany, we have the "weekend reporting" lull, where cases go down. Each time, people in big cities somehow take this as "peak reached" and go out. All actions have a two-week lag, so we don't really know anything about what works and what doesn't. Yet. We NEED to be vigilant now, and you need to urge everyone you know to keep distancing and quarantining. Do your part. Yes, it's 27C and sunny outside, but we are not over the bump yet. IF we keep going like this, we may be able to get over this crisis without ever having a health care catastrophe like France, Spain and Italy. But if we let our guard down too early, then we can get in trouble. Yes, we were lucky with initial cases and our testing capability. But if we get to infection rates like other countries (10x more than current numbers suggest, at least), then our hospital system will also collapse. It's best to ignore daily infection numbers, especially here where few cases are sent to RKI over week-ends and holidays. Let's celebrate when the death rate goes toward zero.