8 ms·

Why are people bad at recognizing and interpreting exponential growth?

14 points by firatcan 7y ago

murkle 7y ago
Because exponential growth always levels off or goes down in real life (eg logistic)
staflow 7y ago
Can these articles please stop? Yes we understand “exponential growth” sounds smart. You are a genius lol like in any real-life projection you can’t approximate growth function until you see enough of it plus there are a bunch of factors that may influence curve angle dramatically.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Yeah it can stop, we called that stop reading. Ahaha I don't care
  - mardifoufs 7y ago
    Are you the author of that medium post? Because if so your childish answer here only proves that you don't really know what you're talking about and that you are merely parroting stuff you heard on internet.
    - firatcan 7y ago
      Indeed that's true, but my point is I don't care, I am just asking questions and not waiting for upvotes, just here waiting for comments like "lonelappde"'s comment. If you don't like it move on There are bunch of other things. That's easy, huh?
pnako 7y ago
I've observed an exponential number of people wrongly assuming that infectious diseases exhibit exponential growth.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Hmm can you explain that more... I know that will eventually turn into logistic curve or something like that. Please clarify me, as I said I am just bored curios human asking silly questions.
  - pnako 7y ago
    Even in the beginning it's not exponential. It's a very simplistic model used to give an idea, maybe to teach high-school students about how it might look like. It's not exactly a logistic model either, although that's clearly a better approximation. One critical aspect is that humans act and react. They cluster. They're not random gas molecules. See this article for a better explanation: https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19-might-be-a-small-world-after-all/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19...
    - firatcan 7y ago
      Perfect thanks for guidance :)
omniscient_oce 7y ago
I don't see where you've concluded that 'people' are bad at 'recognising' exponential growth in relation to Coronavirus. Are you saying people don't understand the concept because that seems like you're projecting hard. If everyone including the media was saying how 'it's just a flu' then how come the news was airing info about it 24/7 and everyone was talking about it constantly and about how it could spread. Everyone was scared of the potential for its growth. I'm thoroughly confused.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Actually news are saying that after the numbers get big enough.
aaron695 7y ago
Relevant XKCD https://xkcd.com/947/ https://xkcd.com/947/
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
frumiousirc 7y ago
This comment is not going to discuss the linked article. It will not explain why nor will it address to the subject of the article. I am not qualified to comment on the linked web page and have not even read it. Instead I will write a never ending scroll of words with cartoon data for some reason.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Funny, yeah I wasn't sober. You should be quite smart to come up with those sarcasm ahaha
lonelappde 7y ago
The human senses for intensity (brightness, volume, etc) apply a logarithmic transform before our conscious brain interprets the sensations. That's why we don't develop an intuition for exponential scales in abstract concepts. Also, exponential growth means that every derivative is exponential, so there is no way to get an approximate single number of magnitude, rate of change, acceleration... We can take a few derivatives intuitively (velocity, accelerarion/force). We're not even that good at understanding quadtratic growth, let alone higher polynomials and exponentials. If you accelerate at 10m/s/s (gravity), how far will you travel in a year (100K seconds)?
- firatcan 7y ago
  That was an answer I am looking for now I have a point that I can search on. Thank you, really appreciate it.
antasvara 7y ago
Seems like our brains aren't optimized for exponential growth because it's not integral to our survival. I could be wrong (not a scientist), but I find it hard to find a situation in which comprehending exponential growth would have been important even 500 years ago.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Hmm interesting thanks for sharing your opinion, I write it down. I'll search about this
woodandsteel 7y ago
I think the correct answer is a version of his first one, that it is unnatural. The human brain is designed to detect the sorts of patterns that are relevant to behavior and intelligent decision making in environment in which human beings evolved, namely foraging societies. There is little relevant exponential growth in that environment, so we don't have the inborn cognitive mechanisms for recognizing and thinking about it.
- firatcan 7y ago
  Cool I'll make more search upon that I don't have any evidence that was just an assumption, thanks for participating :)

14 points by firatcan 7y ago

Because exponential growth always levels off or goes down in real life (eg logistic)

Can these articles please stop? Yes we understand “exponential growth” sounds smart. You are a genius lol like in any real-life projection you can’t approximate growth function until you see enough of it plus there are a bunch of factors that may influence curve angle dramatically.

firatcan 7y ago
Yeah it can stop, we called that stop reading. Ahaha I don't care
- mardifoufs 7y ago
  Are you the author of that medium post? Because if so your childish answer here only proves that you don't really know what you're talking about and that you are merely parroting stuff you heard on internet.
  - firatcan 7y ago
    Indeed that's true, but my point is I don't care, I am just asking questions and not waiting for upvotes, just here waiting for comments like "lonelappde"'s comment. If you don't like it move on There are bunch of other things. That's easy, huh?

pnako 7y ago

I've observed an exponential number of people wrongly assuming that infectious diseases exhibit exponential growth.

firatcan 7y ago
Hmm can you explain that more... I know that will eventually turn into logistic curve or something like that. Please clarify me, as I said I am just bored curios human asking silly questions.
- pnako 7y ago
  Even in the beginning it's not exponential. It's a very simplistic model used to give an idea, maybe to teach high-school students about how it might look like. It's not exactly a logistic model either, although that's clearly a better approximation. One critical aspect is that humans act and react. They cluster. They're not random gas molecules. See this article for a better explanation: https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19-might-be-a-small-world-after-all/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19...
  - firatcan 7y ago
    Perfect thanks for guidance :)

omniscient_oce 7y ago

I don't see where you've concluded that 'people' are bad at 'recognising' exponential growth in relation to Coronavirus. Are you saying people don't understand the concept because that seems like you're projecting hard. If everyone including the media was saying how 'it's just a flu' then how come the news was airing info about it 24/7 and everyone was talking about it constantly and about how it could spread. Everyone was scared of the potential for its growth. I'm thoroughly confused.

firatcan 7y ago
Actually news are saying that after the numbers get big enough.

aaron695 7y ago

Relevant XKCD https://xkcd.com/947/ https://xkcd.com/947/

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

frumiousirc 7y ago

This comment is not going to discuss the linked article. It will not explain why nor will it address to the subject of the article. I am not qualified to comment on the linked web page and have not even read it. Instead I will write a never ending scroll of words with cartoon data for some reason.

firatcan 7y ago
Funny, yeah I wasn't sober. You should be quite smart to come up with those sarcasm ahaha

lonelappde 7y ago

The human senses for intensity (brightness, volume, etc) apply a logarithmic transform before our conscious brain interprets the sensations. That's why we don't develop an intuition for exponential scales in abstract concepts. Also, exponential growth means that every derivative is exponential, so there is no way to get an approximate single number of magnitude, rate of change, acceleration... We can take a few derivatives intuitively (velocity, accelerarion/force). We're not even that good at understanding quadtratic growth, let alone higher polynomials and exponentials. If you accelerate at 10m/s/s (gravity), how far will you travel in a year (100K seconds)?

firatcan 7y ago
That was an answer I am looking for now I have a point that I can search on. Thank you, really appreciate it.

antasvara 7y ago

Seems like our brains aren't optimized for exponential growth because it's not integral to our survival. I could be wrong (not a scientist), but I find it hard to find a situation in which comprehending exponential growth would have been important even 500 years ago.

firatcan 7y ago
Hmm interesting thanks for sharing your opinion, I write it down. I'll search about this

woodandsteel 7y ago

I think the correct answer is a version of his first one, that it is unnatural. The human brain is designed to detect the sorts of patterns that are relevant to behavior and intelligent decision making in environment in which human beings evolved, namely foraging societies. There is little relevant exponential growth in that environment, so we don't have the inborn cognitive mechanisms for recognizing and thinking about it.

firatcan 7y ago
Cool I'll make more search upon that I don't have any evidence that was just an assumption, thanks for participating :)