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The exponential curve in deaths would be reflective of exponential testing/ Once again, if you have a stable X percent of people dying from Y, an exponential in
by lurquer 7y ago
The exponential curve in deaths would be reflective of exponential testing/ Once again, if you have a stable X percent of people dying from Y, an exponential increase in testing for Y will give the illusion of an exponential increase in Y deaths.
As far as ICU admissions, that is an extremely subjective number, based on individual hospital policies; from my conversations with local HCPs, of two patients in the same degree of distress, the one who tests positive will have a greater likelihood of being put into a quarantined ICU for covid cases. There is no sinister reason behind this; its just that the covid patient has a much greater chance or taking a rapid turn for the worse.
Anyway, my statement (now downvoted) isn't meant to be controversial. It's just a fact. We have had an exponential increase in testing in many parts of the countries... posting the results and then having a newscaster say, "Look at the scary exponential curve" is absurd. There could be -- and most likely is -- an exponential rise in the number of cases. But, using the graphs without backing out the curve in the testing would get you an F on a freshman statistics quiz.