4 ms·

Ok so sell USD to buy what? EUR? How about after they figure out Italy JPY? More debt than US and lower rates. CNH? Ha Gold? Sure, but it’s not a currency

sytelus 7y ago
Also, gold is expensive like hell right now. As COVID winds down, I would expect markets react vigorously and gold in free fall. It's also important to know that long term holding of gold has fairly lower relative returns compared to S&P and also no dividends. So only suckers would get in to gold right now.
- blazespin 7y ago
  Unless you are a very long term gold trader with very deep expertise, I would almost guarantee that the market knows a lot more about the correct price of gold than you do. It's not "expensive as hell" but likely fairly priced.
  - sytelus 7y ago
    This view that market knows the best is actually quite misguided. Market does prices assets correctly after long enough period of time but it oscillates and bounces a lot before that happens. It's wrong to say that any point in time market knows the best and current price are exactly the fair price. If this was true, asset prices simply don't keep swinging 10% for days on. Gold isn't worth $100 at 9 AM and suddenly becomes worth $70 at noon.
jameslevy 7y ago
KRW (Korean) is interesting, although I'm hardly an expert in currency trading.
brettproctor 7y ago
Most gold proponents would say gold being money and not a "currency" is the whole point.
dmurray 7y ago
That argument is literally called out as "the biggest push-back I receive" and the largest section of the article is devoted to addressing it.
- MR4D 7y ago
  But she misses the demographics. The US has some of the best demographics of the G20. Germany, Japan, and China all have much worse demographics, and will change into net spenders (i.e. retirees) instead of net savers. Within about 4-10 years (depending on the country), they will be producing less and less for export to the US. Heck, Germany’s GDP is roughly 50% exports. That’s unsustainable. US policies are turning more inward, and countries that rely on exports to us will suffer. The dollar will be strong for the foreseeable future. It may go up and down a bit, but overall it will be very high. The dynamic driving currencies is very different from even 5 years ago. As production moves out of China, they will get weaker. We have already seen peak China (and US voters will insist that drugs and PPE are produced in the US so we don’t run into a supply chain issue like we’ve seen over the past two months.) The EU banks (well, certainly the German ones) are basically insolvent. They were never recapitalized after 2008, and have limited power. So there is nobody around to challenge the US. As well capitalized consumers, the US controls their future.
wyager 7y ago
Why are you set on holding currencies? I think Dalio is a clown, but I do like his pithy “Cash is Trash”. There’s not really any compelling reason to hold a modern fiat currency except to satisfy liquidity requirements. Gold, Bitcoin, plain old equities, whatever, all provide some measure of relief from the inflationary treadmill.
0x8BADF00D 7y ago
Japan has the opposite problem of the United States. Where as we spend with reckless abandon, like an alcoholic chugging shots, they have the opposite problem of literally hoarding cash and having massive savings.

sytelus 7y ago

Also, gold is expensive like hell right now. As COVID winds down, I would expect markets react vigorously and gold in free fall. It's also important to know that long term holding of gold has fairly lower relative returns compared to S&P and also no dividends. So only suckers would get in to gold right now.

blazespin 7y ago
Unless you are a very long term gold trader with very deep expertise, I would almost guarantee that the market knows a lot more about the correct price of gold than you do. It's not "expensive as hell" but likely fairly priced.
- sytelus 7y ago
  This view that market knows the best is actually quite misguided. Market does prices assets correctly after long enough period of time but it oscillates and bounces a lot before that happens. It's wrong to say that any point in time market knows the best and current price are exactly the fair price. If this was true, asset prices simply don't keep swinging 10% for days on. Gold isn't worth $100 at 9 AM and suddenly becomes worth $70 at noon.

jameslevy 7y ago

KRW (Korean) is interesting, although I'm hardly an expert in currency trading.

brettproctor 7y ago

Most gold proponents would say gold being money and not a "currency" is the whole point.

dmurray 7y ago

That argument is literally called out as "the biggest push-back I receive" and the largest section of the article is devoted to addressing it.

MR4D 7y ago
But she misses the demographics. The US has some of the best demographics of the G20. Germany, Japan, and China all have much worse demographics, and will change into net spenders (i.e. retirees) instead of net savers. Within about 4-10 years (depending on the country), they will be producing less and less for export to the US. Heck, Germany’s GDP is roughly 50% exports. That’s unsustainable. US policies are turning more inward, and countries that rely on exports to us will suffer. The dollar will be strong for the foreseeable future. It may go up and down a bit, but overall it will be very high. The dynamic driving currencies is very different from even 5 years ago. As production moves out of China, they will get weaker. We have already seen peak China (and US voters will insist that drugs and PPE are produced in the US so we don’t run into a supply chain issue like we’ve seen over the past two months.) The EU banks (well, certainly the German ones) are basically insolvent. They were never recapitalized after 2008, and have limited power. So there is nobody around to challenge the US. As well capitalized consumers, the US controls their future.

wyager 7y ago

Why are you set on holding currencies? I think Dalio is a clown, but I do like his pithy “Cash is Trash”. There’s not really any compelling reason to hold a modern fiat currency except to satisfy liquidity requirements. Gold, Bitcoin, plain old equities, whatever, all provide some measure of relief from the inflationary treadmill.

0x8BADF00D 7y ago

Japan has the opposite problem of the United States. Where as we spend with reckless abandon, like an alcoholic chugging shots, they have the opposite problem of literally hoarding cash and having massive savings.